Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a very low probability to Prime Minister Narendra Modi leaving office before 2027. On Polymarket, the "Yes" share trades at just 2 cents, implying a 2% chance of the event occurring. This price indicates the market views Modi's premature removal as a highly remote tail risk, not a plausible near-term scenario.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Two structural factors anchor this low probability. First, Modi's political position is exceptionally strong. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a third consecutive term in the 2024 general election, maintaining a stable majority in coalition. This provides a solid mandate through 2029. Second, there is no visible, credible succession crisis or internal party challenge. Modi remains the BJP's central and overwhelmingly dominant leader, with no clear mechanism or rival faction positioned to force his removal.

Furthermore, the constitutional framework in India makes the involuntary removal of a sitting prime minister with parliamentary majority support virtually impossible outside of a general election. Historical precedent also supports stability, as sitting Indian PMs with majority support have almost never been removed mid-term.

What Could Change These Odds

The primary catalyst that could shift this near-zero probability would be a significant, unforeseen health event concerning Modi himself. Absent that, a severe and tangible fracture within the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, leading to a loss of majority in the Lok Sabha, would be required. Market odds may see volatility around key political tests, such as major state elections, but any sustained price increase would require evidence of a fundamental erosion of Modi's authority or coalition unity, for which there is currently no indication.