$75.15K
1
6
$75.15K
1
6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jan '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenh
Prediction markets on Polymarket are pricing in a high probability that London's temperature will reach at least 10°C on January 16, 2026. The leading contract, "Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 16?" is trading at approximately 80 cents, implying an 80% chance. This high probability suggests the market views a high of 10°C or above as very likely, though not a certainty. The other six contracts covering lower temperature ranges (e.g., 7°C, 8°C, 9°C) collectively hold the remaining 20% probability. Total market volume is $33,000, indicating thin but focused liquidity.
Two primary factors are driving this high-confidence prediction. First, historical climatology for London in mid-January shows average high temperatures between 8°C and 9°C. A forecast or market expectation of 10°C represents only a slight deviation above this norm, which is common during milder winter periods influenced by maritime air flows. Second, the specific resolution source, Wunderground's forecast for London City Airport, likely indicates a reliable meteorological model output predicting a high at or above this threshold. The airport's location can also be slightly warmer than broader London averages due to urban heat effects, supporting the higher temperature bracket.
The primary catalyst for odds movement is the final weather forecast in the 24-48 hours before resolution. A sudden shift in model predictions, such as an unexpected cold front or increased cloud cover, could rapidly decrease the probability from 80%. Conversely, if updated forecasts solidify the 10°C+ outlook, the price could push toward 95%. Given the market resolves based on a single station's recorded data, a microclimate effect or instrument error at London City Airport, though unlikely, represents a tail risk that could invalidate the consensus forecast. All odds will solidify as the actual day approaches and real-time morning temperatures are observed.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at London City Airport on January 16, 2026. The market resolves based on verified data from the Weather Underground (Wunderground) platform, specifically the highest temperature reading for that date at the designated station. This type of market represents a growing intersection of climate science, data analytics, and speculative forecasting, where participants use meteorological models, historical patterns, and real-time climate data to predict specific weather outcomes. Interest stems from both meteorological enthusiasts and financial speculators looking to capitalize on accurate weather predictions, which have significant implications for sectors like energy, transportation, and event planning. The specific focus on London City Airport, a major urban weather station, adds relevance due to its role in official climate records for the UK capital. Recent developments in climate modeling and the increasing volatility of winter weather patterns in Western Europe have made such precise, date-specific forecasts both more challenging and more valuable for analysis.
London's climate has been meticulously recorded for centuries, with the Central England Temperature series providing a continuous record dating back to 1659. This historical context shows that January is typically the coldest month in London, with average maximum temperatures around 8 degrees Celsius. However, significant variability exists. For instance, on January 16, 2023, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport was 12.2 degrees Celsius, while on the same date in 2021, it was only 4.5 degrees Celsius. The all-time maximum January temperature for London stands at 17.2 degrees Celsius, recorded at Kensington Palace on January 29, 1897, demonstrating the potential for significant warm anomalies even in mid-winter. The period from 2010 onwards has seen an increase in the frequency of warmer winter days, a trend consistent with broader climate change observations in Western Europe. The specific station at London City Airport began providing continuous data in the late 20th century, and its records are now part of the official network used to monitor London's urban heat island effect, which can elevate minimum and sometimes maximum temperatures relative to surrounding rural areas.
Accurately predicting a single day's high temperature has tangible economic consequences. For energy markets, an unexpectedly warm January day can lead to a sharp drop in natural gas demand for heating, affecting spot prices and grid management. For transportation, at London City Airport, temperature directly impacts aircraft performance calculations, potential for icing, and operational planning. A precise forecast can optimize de-icing fluid usage and flight schedules. Beyond immediate logistics, such prediction markets serve as a public laboratory for evaluating the skill of different forecasting methods and models. They also provide a financial incentive structure that aggregates dispersed information about complex systems like the atmosphere, potentially yielding insights that pure scientific modeling might miss. For climate researchers, the outcomes of such specific predictions, when aggregated over time, can offer empirical data on the predictability of weather in a changing climate.
As of late 2024, the winter of 2025/2026 is beyond the reliable forecast horizon of all operational weather models. Prediction market activity is therefore currently based on climatological probabilities, long-range seasonal outlooks, and analysis of emerging climate signals like the state of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The latest seasonal projections from institutions like the Met Office and ECMWF for the winter period will be published in late 2025 and will provide the first model-based guidance. The immediate focus for participants is on monitoring the evolution of the current climate system to infer potential patterns for the following year.
Historical records vary by location. For the London area, the highest temperature recorded on January 16 in recent decades was 14.5 degrees Celsius at Heathrow Airport in 2022. The specific record for the London City Airport station is determined from its own shorter period of record, available via the Wunderground historical archive.
Forecast skill for a specific daily high temperature decreases rapidly beyond 7-10 days. For a date over a year away, current forecasts have no specific skill. Predictions rely on climatology and long-range seasonal outlooks that assess broad temperature probability shifts (e.g., warmer or colder than average), not precise daily values.
London City Airport hosts an official, reliably maintained weather station (designated EGLC) that reports continuous data to networks like Wunderground. Using a single, specified station eliminates ambiguity in the market's resolution, ensuring a clear, verifiable outcome based on a consistent data source.
London's extensive built environment absorbs and re-radiates heat, typically raising minimum nighttime temperatures by 2-4 degrees Celsius compared to the countryside. This effect is most pronounced on calm, clear nights and can also moderate daytime highs in winter, though the influence on maximum temperatures is generally less pronounced than on minima.
Unseasonably warm January days in London are usually associated with a southerly or southwesterly airflow, drawing mild, moist air from the subtropical Atlantic. This often occurs when a high-pressure system is positioned to the east or southeast of the UK, with a low-pressure system to the west, creating a strong southwesterly flow.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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