Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win?

Total Volume

$58.67K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win?

Vol

$58.67K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $58.67K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $58.67K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

16 markets tracked

Will Democrats win All 4?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Democrats win All 4?	Kalshi	33%
Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska, Ohio?	Kalshi	22%
Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska?	Kalshi	12%
Will Democrats win Alaska, Ohio?	Kalshi	8%
Will Democrats win None?	Kalshi	8%
Will Democrats win Alaska?	Kalshi	5%
Will Democrats win Ohio?	Kalshi	5%
Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska, Iowa?	Kalshi	4%
Will Democrats win Texas, Ohio?	Kalshi	4%
Will Democrats win Texas, Iowa, Ohio?	Kalshi	3%
Will Democrats win Texas?	Kalshi	3%
Will Democrats win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio?	Kalshi	3%
Will Democrats win Texas, Iowa?	Kalshi	2%
Will Democrats win Alaska, Iowa?	Kalshi	2%
Will Democrats win Iowa?	Kalshi	1%
Will Democrats win Iowa, Ohio?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

33%

Top Probability

$58.67K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

TX, AK, IA, OH If the winning party for the Class II Senate seat of Texas is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Alaska is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Iowa is the Democratic Party, AND the Class III Senate seat of Ohio is X term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the party of the candidate first sworn into each seat for the new term, or via accelerated resolution if 4 of the 8 Designated Media Sources proj

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** TX, AK, IA, OH

If the winning party for the Class II Senate seat of Texas is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Alaska is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Iowa is the Democratic Party, AND the Class III Senate seat of Ohio is X term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the party of the candidate first sworn into each seat for the new term, or via accelerated resolution if 4 of the 8 Designated Media Sources proj

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $58.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Democrats win All 4?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $6.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska, Iowa?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska, Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $9.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Democrats win Texas, Iowa, Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $970
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Democrats win Texas, Iowa?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Democrats win Texas, Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.1% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Democrats win Texas?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Democrats win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Democrats win Alaska, Iowa?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Democrats win Alaska, Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Democrats win Alaska?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Democrats win Iowa, Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $512
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Democrats win Iowa?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Democrats win Ohio?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Democrats win None?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $8.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win?

Volume$58.67K

Markets16

16 of 16

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KALSHI

Will Democrats win All 4?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 33.0¢No 67.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win All 4?

If the winning party for the Class II Senate seat of Texas is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Alaska is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Iowa is the Democratic Party, AND the Class III Senate seat of Ohio is the Democratic Party for the term beginning in 20

KALSHI

Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska, Ohio?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska, Ohio?

If the winning party for the Class II Senate seat of Texas is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Alaska is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Iowa is NOT the Democratic Party, AND the Class III Senate seat of Ohio is the Democratic Party for the term beginning i

KALSHI

Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska?

If the winning party for the Class II Senate seat of Texas is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Alaska is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Iowa is NOT the Democratic Party, AND the Class III Senate seat of Ohio is NOT the Democratic Party for the term beginni

KALSHI

Will Democrats win Alaska, Ohio?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.1¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win Alaska, Ohio?

If the winning party for the Class II Senate seat of Texas is NOT the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Alaska is the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Iowa is NOT the Democratic Party, AND the Class III Senate seat of Ohio is the Democratic Party for the term beginni

KALSHI

Will Democrats win None?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.1¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Democrats win None?

If the winning party for the Class II Senate seat of Texas is NOT the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Alaska is NOT the Democratic Party, AND the Class II Senate seat of Iowa is NOT the Democratic Party, AND the Class III Senate seat of Ohio is NOT the Democratic Party for the term

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7¢

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Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win?

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Will Democrats win All 4?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win?

Markets (16)

Will Democrats win All 4?

Will Democrats win All 4?

Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska, Ohio?

Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska, Ohio?

Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska?

Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska?

Will Democrats win Alaska, Ohio?

Will Democrats win Alaska, Ohio?

Will Democrats win None?

Will Democrats win None?

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Will Democrats win All 4?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tossup Senate Race Combo: which states will Democrats win?

Will Democrats win All 4?

Will Democrats win All 4?

Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska, Ohio?

Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska, Ohio?

Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska?

Will Democrats win Texas, Alaska?

Will Democrats win Alaska, Ohio?

Will Democrats win Alaska, Ohio?

Will Democrats win None?

Will Democrats win None?

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