U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

Name: U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
End: 2026-01-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$442.47K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

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Polymarket

markets · $442.47K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $442.47K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	Poly	57%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

57%

Top Probability

$442.47K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Somalia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military fo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Somalia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military fo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Somalia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "str"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $442.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $8.3K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 53.42)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 31, 2026): Vol $442.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

57¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

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U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)