This prediction market topic concerns the outcome of a lightweight preliminary bout scheduled for UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2, set for January 31, 2026. The specific fight features Australian fighter Jamie Mullarkey against New Zealand's Quillan Salkilld. The market allows participants to predict which fighter will be officially declared the winner, with a resolution to '50-50' if the fight results in a draw, no contest, or is canceled/postponed beyond February 14, 2026. The resolution will be based on the official result posted on UFC.com. This bout is part of the preliminary card, which typically airs on ESPN+ in the United States and serves as a lead-in to the main pay-per-view event headlined by the featherweight championship rematch between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes. The lightweight division, where this fight takes place, is one of the UFC's most competitive and talent-rich weight classes, historically featuring stars like Khabib Nurmagomedov, Conor McGregor, and Charles Oliveira. Interest in this market stems from both the competitive nature of preliminary fights, which often feature rising prospects and entertaining matchups, and the specific regional rivalry between Australian and New Zealand fighters, a dynamic that has produced notable contests in UFC history. Prediction markets for UFC events have grown in popularity as a way for fans and analysts to engage with the sport beyond simple viewership, applying statistical analysis and fight knowledge to forecast outcomes.

Historical Context

The UFC, founded in 1993, has evolved from a no-holds-barred spectacle to a globally recognized sports league with standardized rules and weight classes. The lightweight division, capped at 155 pounds, was formally introduced in the early 2000s. Preliminary bouts, like Mullarkey vs. Salkilld, have become a crucial part of UFC events, serving as a proving ground for new talent and a platform for established fighters to regain momentum. Historically, many future champions and stars, such as Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, first gained attention on preliminary cards. The rivalry between Australian and New Zealand fighters in the UFC has a notable history, often referred to as a Trans-Tasman rivalry, stemming from the nations' competitive history in rugby and other sports. This was exemplified in the famous UFC 243 event in Melbourne in 2019, where New Zealand's Israel Adesanya defeated Australia's Robert Whittaker to claim the middleweight title. For Jamie Mullarkey, this fight represents another step in a UFC career that began with a loss on debut in 2019 but has seen him become a staple of the division. For Quillan Salkilld, it follows the path of many Oceania fighters who have used the UFC as a global platform, a tradition including Mark Hunt from New Zealand and Alexander Volkanovski from Australia.

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