Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Trump's approval rating on Oct 16, 2026?

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$3.80K

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Trump's approval rating on Oct 16, 2026?

Vol

$3.80K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $3.80K

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0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $3.80K

100%

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8 markets tracked

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.8 according to RealClearPolitics?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the President's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.8 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	25%
Will the President's approval rating be between 37.9 and 38.1 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	22%
Will the President's approval rating be between 37.3 and 37.5 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	20%
Will the President's approval rating be between 38.2 and 38.4 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	12%
Will the President's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.2 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	9%
Will the President's approval rating be above 38.7 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	8%
Will the President's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.7 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	8%
Will the President's approval rating be below 37.0 according to RealClearPolitics?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

25%

Top Probability

$3.80K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Oct 16, 2026 If the President's approval rating is X Y at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Trump's approval rating on Oct 16, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 16, 2026

If the President's approval rating is X Y at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the President's approval rating is above 38.7% at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the President's approval rating be above 38.7 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the President's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.7 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $201
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the President's approval rating be between 38.2 and 38.4 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $196
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the President's approval rating be between 37.9 and 38.1 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $221
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the President's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.8 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $181
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the President's approval rating be between 37.3 and 37.5 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $246
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the President's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.2 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $149
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the President's approval rating be below 37.0 according to RealClearPolitics?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $753
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Trump's approval rating on Oct 16, 2026?

Volume$3.80K

Markets8

8 of 8

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KALSHI

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.8 according to RealClearPolitics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

CLOSING SOON

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.8 according to RealClearPolitics?

If the President's approval rating is between 37.6 and 37.8% at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.9 and 38.1 according to RealClearPolitics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

CLOSING SOON

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.9 and 38.1 according to RealClearPolitics?

If the President's approval rating is between 37.9 and 38.1% at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.3 and 37.5 according to RealClearPolitics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

CLOSING SOON

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.3 and 37.5 according to RealClearPolitics?

If the President's approval rating is between 37.3 and 37.5% at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the President's approval rating be between 38.2 and 38.4 according to RealClearPolitics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

CLOSING SOON

Will the President's approval rating be between 38.2 and 38.4 according to RealClearPolitics?

If the President's approval rating is between 38.2 and 38.4% at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.2 according to RealClearPolitics?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

CLOSING SOON

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.2 according to RealClearPolitics?

If the President's approval rating is between 37.0 and 37.2% at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will determine at 11:00 AM ET on October 16, 2026.

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13¢

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Trump's approval rating on Oct 16, 2026?

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Will the President's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.8 according to RealClearPolitics?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Trump's approval rating on Oct 16, 2026?

Markets (8)

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.8 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.8 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.9 and 38.1 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.9 and 38.1 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.3 and 37.5 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.3 and 37.5 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 38.2 and 38.4 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 38.2 and 38.4 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.2 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.2 according to RealClearPolitics?

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Will the President's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.8 according to RealClearPolitics?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Trump's approval rating on Oct 16, 2026?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.8 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.8 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.9 and 38.1 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.9 and 38.1 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.3 and 37.5 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.3 and 37.5 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 38.2 and 38.4 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 38.2 and 38.4 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.2 according to RealClearPolitics?

Will the President's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.2 according to RealClearPolitics?

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