This prediction market addresses whether the BRICS economic bloc will expand its membership by adding at least one new full member state before the end of 2026. BRICS, originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, and China (with South Africa joining in 2010), represents a significant coalition of major emerging economies. The topic centers on the formal accession process, where a candidate country receives and accepts an official invitation to join as a full member, distinct from partnership or dialogue status. The resolution depends on official announcements from BRICS members or a consensus of credible reporting confirming such an accession. Interest in this question surged following the bloc's 2023 summit in Johannesburg, where a major expansion was announced, with six countries set to join in 2024. This established expansion as a core, ongoing strategic priority for the group. Observers are now focused on whether this momentum will continue into 2025 and 2026, as BRICS seeks to further amplify its collective economic weight and geopolitical influence. The debate involves assessing the bloc's internal consensus on further growth, the economic and political criteria for new members, and the strategic interests of its founding powers, particularly China and Russia, who have been the most vocal proponents of enlargement.

Historical Context

The BRIC acronym was coined in 2001 by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill to describe the collective economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The group formalized its diplomatic cooperation with its first summit in Yekaterinburg, Russia, in 2009. A significant precedent for expansion was set in 2010 when South Africa was invited to join, transforming BRIC into BRICS and adding a strategic African dimension. For over a decade, BRICS operated as a five-member bloc focused on establishing its own financial institutions, like the New Development Bank (NDB) in 2014. The question of further expansion simmered for years, with many countries expressing interest but no formal process established. This changed decisively at the 2022 summit under China's chairmanship, where members agreed to consider expansion procedures. The historic breakthrough came at the 15th BRICS summit in August 2023, hosted by South Africa. After lengthy negotiations, the bloc announced it would invite six new members, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, to join on January 1, 2024. This move created a clear precedent and institutional pathway for future accessions, fundamentally altering the bloc's character and setting the stage for the current prediction regarding 2026.

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