New Hampshire Senate winner?
$2.26M
2
4
New Hampshire Senate winner?
$2.26M
2
4
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
In 2026 If a representative X party is sworn in as a Senator of New Hampshire for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T06:00:05.665Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The two platforms list similar but not identical contracts on the New Hampshire Senate race. Kalshi's rule states: "If a representative X party is sworn in as a Senator of New Hampshire for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes." [1] Its market titles, such as "Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Hampshire?", do not name a year. Kalshi also says the market "is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner" and "will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question." [1]
Polymarket's rule ties resolution to "the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs." [2] Its market titles specify 2026. Polymarket also states that candidates who run as independents "will not be encompassed by the 'Democrat' or 'Republican' options." [2]
Because the wording differs, the platforms are not measuring exactly the same event, and their prices should not be treated as interchangeable.
Reading the snapshot
The supplied data was observed at 2026-10-13T06:00:05Z and retrieved at 07:37:40Z on the same day. These are snapshot timestamps, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
On Kalshi, the Democratic "Yes" contract was priced at 0.895 and the Republican "Yes" contract at 0.105. On Polymarket, the Democratic "Yes" contract was priced at 0.885 and the Republican "Yes" contract at 0.115. [1][2]
Each platform's pair of contracts sums to 1.00 in the snapshot. Within each platform, the Democratic and Republican prices are complementary. Across platforms, the gap between the Democratic prices (0.895 versus 0.885) is small, but the two contracts have different rules and listed close times, so comparing them is limited. The data does not explain any price movement.
The supplied sample includes all saved markets for both events (two per platform), and the sample is not marked as partial. This does not establish that the providers list every possible outcome in the race.
What remains uncertain
Kalshi's listed end time is "not supplied" in its excerpt, but the market data includes an end date of 2027-11-03T15:00:00Z. The rules tie closing to swearing-in and media projection, so that date should not be read as a scheduled resolution date. Polymarket lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z. [1][2]
The evidence does not include current news, trader counts, liquidity, or historical accuracy of these markets. Volume data is not included, so no conclusions about depth are possible.
References
- Kalshi: New Hampshire Senate winner?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T06:00:05.665Z.
- Polymarket: New Hampshire Senate Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T06:00:05.665Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia topic covers prediction markets on the winner of the 2026 United States Senate election in New Hampshire. Two providers, Kalshi and Polymarket, list event pages for the race, and each page contains binary contracts asking whether the Democratic or the Republican side will win the seat [1][2]. The Kalshi event is titled "New Hampshire Senate winner?" and is grouped under the 2026 year label [1]. The Polymarket event is titled "New Hampshire Senate Election Winner" and states that it will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs [2]. The two platforms use different resolution wording. Kalshi says a contract resolves to Yes if a representative of the stated party is sworn in as a Senator of New Hampshire for the term beginning in 2027 [1]. Polymarket ties resolution to the election winner and says a candidate counts as representing a party if that person is the nominee of that party [2]. Polymarket also notes that candidates outside the Democratic and Republican parties may be added later and that independents are not counted under either major-party option [2]. Each platform's listed end time differs. Polymarket lists November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC, while the Kalshi contracts list a date of November 3, 2027 at 15:00 UTC [1][2]. A listed end time is a contract field and does not by itself announce when any event will happen. Readers should not confuse this race with the New Hampshire State Senate, which is the upper house of the state legislature and has 24 members, with 16 Republicans and 8 Democrats listed as currently serving [3]. The state body is a separate institution from the United States Senate seat that these markets cover.
Historical Context
The New Hampshire State Senate has been meeting since 1784 and is the upper house of the New Hampshire General Court, alongside the New Hampshire House of Representatives [3]. This institutional history concerns the state legislature and not the federal Senate contracts. For the federal seat, a historical example is the 1974 to 1975 contest. The elections for United States Senator in New Hampshire were first held on November 5, 1974, and held again on September 16, 1975. They were part of what the source describes as the longest contested election for the Congress in United States history [4]. This background explains that the seat has had lengthy contested elections in the past, but the sources do not describe how that history bears on the 2026 race.
Why It Matters
These contracts measure which party will hold the New Hampshire U.S. Senate seat after the 2026 midterm contest, as defined by each provider's resolution wording [1][2]. Because the two platforms define resolution differently, a Kalshi contract depends on who is sworn in for the term beginning in 2027, while a Polymarket contract depends on the election winner, including any run-offs [1][2]. Kalshi also says the market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, and that it will close early following the swearing in of the Senator for the seat in question [1]. Those rules determine when a contract can settle, so the timing of a market's close can differ from the timing of the election itself.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes contract on the Kalshi New Hampshire market require?
A Yes contract resolves to Yes if a representative of the stated party is sworn in as a Senator of New Hampshire for the term beginning in 2027 [1]. The Kalshi event also allows accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner [1].
Do the Polymarket and Kalshi contracts use the same resolution standard?
No. Polymarket resolves according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs, and treats a candidate as representing a party if that person is the nominee of that party [2]. Kalshi instead refers to the party representative sworn in for the term beginning in 2027 [1]. Readers should check each provider's full rules before comparing the two.
How are independent candidates treated in the Polymarket market?
Polymarket states that candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the Democrat or Republican options, regardless of the other terms of the rule [2]. The same source says candidates from other parties, such as Greens or Libertarians, may be added at a later date [2].
Is the New Hampshire State Senate the same as the seat in these markets?
No. The New Hampshire State Senate is the upper house of the state legislature, with 24 members, and is distinct from the United States Senate seat that these contracts cover [3].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Saved price pairs
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Largest saved gap: 1.0 percentage points.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
