Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate
Highest temperature in Paris on March 3?
Total Volume
$1.17K
Events
1
Markets
9
Highest temperature in Paris on March 3?
Vol
$1.17K
|
Events
1
|
Markets
9
$1.17K
1
9
$1.17K
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Mar '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG. To toggle betwe
Prediction markets currently give roughly even odds about whether Paris will reach 13°C on March 1. The leading forecast suggests a 52% probability, which is essentially a coin flip. This means traders collectively see it as slightly more likely than not that the high temperature will hit at least 13 degrees Celsius at Charles de Gaulle Airport. The market shows low confidence in any single outcome, with significant betting spread across nine different temperature ranges.
Two main factors explain the uncertainty. First, early March weather in Paris is historically variable. The average high temperature for the date is around 11°C, but it can easily swing several degrees in either direction based on wind patterns and cloud cover. A reading of 13°C would be mild but not exceptional for the time of year.
Second, short-term weather forecasts for the specific day are still developing. While broader models might suggest a generally mild trend, the precise peak temperature for a single location on a single day remains difficult to pin down more than a week in advance. Traders are likely weighing recent warm trends against the possibility of a cooler air mass arriving.
The most important signals will come from improved weather model forecasts as the date approaches. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and other major models typically become more reliable within a 3 to 5 day window. A key shift in the market odds will likely happen around February 26-27, when higher-confidence short-term forecasts become available. The actual high temperature will be recorded and verified on March 1 itself.
Prediction markets are generally decent at aggregating available information, including weather model data and historical averages. For specific, short-term meteorological outcomes like this, they often perform similarly to consensus forecasts from experts. However, their accuracy is limited by the inherent unpredictability of weather. A sudden shift in conditions can always surprise both models and markets. The modest amount of money wagered here also suggests this is seen as a niche, speculative forecast rather than a high-confidence prediction.
Prediction markets assign a 52% probability that Paris will reach a high of 13°C on March 1, 2026. This price indicates the market views the outcome as a near coin-flip, with a slight tilt toward the temperature hitting that specific mark. The other eight temperature buckets, ranging from below 5°C to above 17°C, collectively hold the remaining 48% probability. With only $53,000 in total volume, liquidity is thin. This low volume increases price volatility and means the current odds are more sensitive to individual trades than a deep, liquid market.
The 52% probability for 13°C reflects a blend of climatology and near-term forecast uncertainty. The average high temperature in Paris for early March is historically around 11°C. A forecast for 13°C represents a slightly warmer-than-average day, which is a common occurrence. The market is likely consolidating around this central historical tendency because definitive, high-confidence weather forecasts for a specific date three years in the future do not exist. Traders are essentially pricing the climatological mean with a small premium for potential warming trends, rather than reacting to a specific weather model.
For a market resolving in 2026, the odds will remain static and driven by climatology until approximately one to two weeks before the resolution date. At that point, reliable meteorological models will begin generating forecasts for March 1, 2026. A confident model consensus showing a strong high-pressure system and southerly winds could rapidly shift probability toward the 15°C or 17°C buckets. Conversely, a forecast for a persistent low-pressure system with Arctic air would move probability toward the 5°C or 9°C ranges. The current 52% price for 13°C is a placeholder; it will see dramatic movement once actionable weather data becomes available in late February 2026.
This market is unusual because it speculates on a weather event far beyond any reliable forecasting horizon. Its current state is less a prediction and more a reflection of the base rate for Parisian March temperatures. The thin $53,000 volume suggests limited trader interest in a 2026 outcome, which is rational given the inability to analyze meaningful data. This market will likely see a surge in trading volume and significant price discovery only in the final 10-14 days before resolution, when short-term weather models can be analyzed. Until then, the probabilities should be interpreted as a smoothed histogram of historical temperature averages, not a live forecast.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris on March 1, 2026. The market will resolve based on data from Wunderground's historical weather records for the airport's official weather station, designated LFPG. Participants are essentially betting on which temperature range will contain the day's peak Celsius reading. This specific forecast requires analyzing both typical early spring weather patterns for the Paris region and the potential influence of broader climatic trends on a single day's weather years in advance. Interest in such markets comes from weather enthusiasts, climate analysts, and prediction market participants who test their understanding of meteorology and climate variability against probabilistic outcomes. The challenge lies in separating the predictable seasonal signal from the substantial random variability inherent in daily weather, all while considering potential long-term shifts in climate that could make 2026 different from historical averages.
Paris has a temperate oceanic climate characterized by mild winters and warm summers. Historical data for March shows considerable temperature variability. For example, on March 1, 2021, the high at Charles de Gaulle Airport was 12.2°C. In contrast, March 1, 2018, saw a high of only 3.5°C. The all-time record high for March in Paris, set on March 25, 1955, is 25.7°C, demonstrating the potential for unseasonable warmth. The broader historical context is a clear warming trend. According to Météo-France, the average temperature in France has increased by approximately 1.7°C since 1900, with warming accelerating since the 1980s. This trend makes recent years more relevant for forecasting 2026 than the full century-long record. The specific location, Charles de Gaulle Airport, is situated about 25 kilometers northeast of central Paris. Its temperature readings can differ from the city center due to the urban heat island effect, which makes central Paris warmer, especially at night. The airport's more rural setting typically records slightly cooler minimums and, at times, different maximums compared to stations within the city.
The outcome of this specific forecast matters as a microcosm of climate prediction and adaptation. A significantly warmer-than-average temperature on March 1, 2026, would align with and provide a real-world data point for global warming projections for Western Europe. It would have immediate implications for early-season agriculture, such as the budding of grapevines in nearby vineyards, which increases vulnerability to a subsequent frost. For energy markets, an unusually warm early spring day reduces demand for heating fuel, affecting natural gas and electricity prices. For the public, it shapes perceptions of climate change; a string of warm early springs makes the abstract concept of global warming feel more tangible and immediate. Conversely, a very cold day might be used in public discourse to question warming trends, highlighting how single data points can be misinterpreted within a long-term statistical context.
As of early 2025, seasonal forecast models from centers like the ECMWF and Météo-France provide probabilistic outlooks for the upcoming winter and spring. These models currently suggest a heightened probability of above-average temperatures for Western Europe for the February-April 2025 period, influenced by factors like ongoing El Niño conditions and record-high global sea surface temperatures. While these forecasts are for 2025, they reflect the atmospheric and oceanic conditions that set the stage for the following year. The latest IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021-2023) projects continued warming for the European region under all emissions scenarios, reinforcing that the climate context for March 2026 is one of elevated baseline temperatures compared to pre-industrial levels.
Early March in Paris is transitional, with average high temperatures around 11°C and lows near 3°C. The weather is highly variable, featuring a mix of cool, damp days and periods of mild, sunny conditions. Rainfall is common, with an average of about 8-9 rainy days in the month.
Charles de Gaulle Airport (LFPG) is an official WMO station with a long, consistent historical record and strict instrumentation standards. Its location away from the dense urban core minimizes the direct influence of the urban heat island, providing a measurement more representative of the broader regional climate.
Specific daily weather conditions cannot be predicted two years ahead. However, climate science can forecast the statistical distribution of temperatures for a given month or season. This prediction market is about estimating the probability of the daily high falling within a certain range, based on understanding climate norms and trends.
The high temperature on March 1 varies annually. For example, on March 1, 2024, the maximum temperature at Montsouris Park in central Paris was 13.6°C. Data for Charles de Gaulle Airport for that specific date is available on the Wunderground history page for station LFPG.
The influence of El Niño on European weather is complex and less direct than in the tropics. It can modulate large-scale atmospheric patterns, like the North Atlantic Oscillation, which in turn affects temperature and precipitation. Typically, El Niño winters in Europe can be milder and wetter in the north, but the signal is noisy and not guaranteed.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
9 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 38% |
| Poly | 26% |
| Poly | 18% |
| Poly | 9% |
| Poly | 8% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
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