GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place

Name: São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$40.70K

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Markets

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São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place

Vol

$40.70K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $40.70K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $40.70K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

Will Simone Tebet win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Simone Tebet win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	36%
Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	31%
Will André do Prado win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	21%
Will Guilherme Derrite win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	13%
Will Salles win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	5%
Will Dra. Eliana Ferreira win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Ednelson Cesaretti win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Geraldo Rufino win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Maíra de Souza win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Marcio Alves win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Petter Maahs win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Soninha Francine win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Weller Gonçalves win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will William Teixeira win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$40.70K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candid

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** São Paulo Senate Election: 2nd Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candid

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. I"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $40.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $105.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.39)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will André do Prado win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $5.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Dra. Eliana Ferreira win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $457
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Ednelson Cesaretti win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $580
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Geraldo Rufino win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $528
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Guilherme Derrite win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Maíra de Souza win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $406
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Marcio Alves win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $408
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $10.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Petter Maahs win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $757
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Salles win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Simone Tebet win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $9.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Soninha Francine win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $608
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Weller Gonçalves win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $813
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will William Teixeira win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $686
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics