Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by...?

Name: Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by...?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$13.92K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by...?

Vol

$13.92K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $13.92K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $13.92K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by December 31, 2026?	Poly	16%
Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by October 31, 2026?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

16%

Top Probability

$13.92K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi troops enter any part of Marib Governorate, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Saudi troops" refers to active military personnel officially affiliated with Saudi Arabia. Only members of the regular armed forces of Saudi Arabia will qualify. Foreign fighters, private military contractors, mercenaries, or any other personnel recruited, paid, trained, equipped or directed by Saudi Arabia who are not mem

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (82 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi troops enter any part of Marib Governorate, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Saudi troops" refers to active military personnel officially affiliated with Saudi Arabia. Only members of the regular armed forces of Saudi Arabia will qualify. Foreign fighters, private military contractors, mercenaries, or any other personnel recruited, paid, trained, equipped or directed by Saudi Arabia who are not mem

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi troops enter any part of Marib Governorate, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Saudi troops" refers to active military personnel officially affiliated with Saudi Arabia. Only members of the regular armed"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $31.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.44)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $9.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Saudi troops enter Marib Governorate by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics