Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to former President Donald Trump signing a corporate tax cut into law before 2027. On Polymarket, the "Yes" share trades at approximately 12¢, implying just a 12% chance of the event occurring. This price indicates the market views a pre-2027 corporate tax cut under a potential Trump administration as possible, but highly unlikely. The market also shows thin liquidity, meaning this price may be more sensitive to new information or trading activity.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Two primary factors are suppressing the market's odds. First, the legislative calendar and political reality create a significant hurdle. Even if Trump wins the November 2024 election, his term would not begin until January 2025. For a tax cut to be signed into law by the end of 2026, it would require swift legislative action in a potentially divided Congress. Historical precedent shows major tax legislation, like the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act which lowered the corporate rate from 35% to 21%, often consumes much of a congressional session.

Second, fiscal constraints are a major headwind. The national debt and deficit have grown substantially since 2017. With the current 21% corporate rate already a historic low, a further cut would face intense scrutiny over its budgetary impact. Market pricing suggests traders believe that even with political will, finding the votes to pass a deficit-financed tax cut in the next Congress is a steep challenge.

What Could Change These Odds

The most significant catalyst for higher odds would be a Republican sweep of the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives in the 2024 elections, coupled with an explicit, detailed policy pledge from Trump to prioritize a corporate tax cut early in his term. Such an outcome could cause the probability to rise sharply from its current 12% level.

Conversely, odds could fall further toward 0% if Democrats retain control of the Senate or White House, making the legislative path virtually impossible. The market will also closely monitor the 2024 party platforms and the post-election "lame-duck" session of Congress for any surprise tax legislation that could affect the baseline before a potential Trump term begins.