When will France announce a snap election? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will France announce a snap election?

Total Volume

$88.00

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When will France announce a snap election?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $88.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $88.00

100%

Kalshi leads

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1 market tracked

Will France announce a snap election before Jan 1, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will France announce a snap election before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$88.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2027 If France officially announces a snap election for its national legislature or head of government before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A snap election announcement must be made by a person or body with legal authority to call elections in the specified country and must specify an actual election date. The election must be called to occur at least 90 days earlier than either the previously scheduled election date or the latest constitutionally required date. The annou

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will France announce a snap election?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If France officially announces a snap election for its national legislature or head of government before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A snap election announcement must be made by a person or body with legal authority to call elections in the specified country and must specify an actual election date. The election must be called to occur at least 90 days earlier than either the previously scheduled election date or the latest constitutionally required date. The annou

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If France officially announces a snap election for its national legislature or head of government before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A snap election announcement must be made by a person or body with legal authority to call elections in the specified country and mu"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $88
* **Total Liquidity:** $819.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will France announce a snap election before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $88
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

50¢

Kalshi

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When will France announce a snap election?

When will France announce a snap election?

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Will France announce a snap election before Jan 1, 2027?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)