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Will the midterms happen on time?

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Will the midterms happen on time?

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1 market tracked

Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?	Kalshi	90%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

90%

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About This Event

Nov 3, 2026 If the regularly scheduled biennial federal general election for the U.S. House of Representatives is conducted on time in all 50 U.S. states on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An election is "conducted on time" in a state if, on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, election officials in that state lawfully accept ballots cast by voters in such election in each of the state's U.S. House of Representatives congressional dist

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the midterms happen on time?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 3, 2026

If the regularly scheduled biennial federal general election for the U.S. House of Representatives is conducted on time in all 50 U.S. states on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An election is "conducted on time" in a state if, on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, election officials in that state lawfully accept ballots cast by voters in such election in each of the state's U.S. House of Representatives congressional dist

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the regularly scheduled biennial federal general election for the U.S. House of Representatives is conducted on time in all 50 U.S. states on the federally prescribed Election Day for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An election is "conducted on time" in a state if, on the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections