Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11)

Total Volume

$75.60K

Events

Markets

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Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11)

Vol

$75.60K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $75.60K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $75.60K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will October 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will October 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?	Kalshi	38%
Will October 5 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?	Kalshi	26%
Will October 9 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?	Kalshi	13%
Will October 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?	Kalshi	12%
Will October 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?	Kalshi	5%
Will October 10 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?	Kalshi	5%
Will October 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

38%

Top Probability

$75.60K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

10/5 - 10/11 If Oct X 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 10/5 - 10/11

If Oct X 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available. If multiple days tie for the highest number of transit calls, the market for each tied day will resolve to 1/N, where

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Oct 11, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $75.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will October 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $12.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will October 10 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $12.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will October 9 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will October 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $14.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will October 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $9.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will October 6 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $11.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will October 5 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $9.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11)

Volume$75.60K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will October 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢

KALSHITech

Will October 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

If Oct 7, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier

KALSHI

Will October 5 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHITech

Will October 5 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

If Oct 5, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier

KALSHI

Will October 9 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHITech

Will October 9 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

If Oct 9, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier

KALSHI

Will October 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.5¢No 88.5¢

KALSHITech

Will October 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

If Oct 8, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier

KALSHI

Will October 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHITech

Will October 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

If Oct 11, 2026 is the date with the highest number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch in the listed week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Daily counts will be evaluated from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier

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14¢

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Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11)

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11)

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Will October 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11)

Markets (7)

Will October 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 5 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 5 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 9 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 9 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

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Will October 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic day? (10/5 - 10/11)

Will October 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 7 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 5 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 5 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 9 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 9 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 8 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

Will October 11 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/5 - 10/11)?

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