Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?

Name: LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$15.70K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?

Vol

$15.70K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $15.70K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $15.70K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%?	Poly	28%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 8%-12%?	Poly	22%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 4%-8%?	Poly	21%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 4%-8%?	Poly	10%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 12%-16%?	Poly	9%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%?	Poly	9%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 8%-12%?	Poly	6%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 16%-20%?	Poly	6%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by at least 20%?	Poly	5%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 16%-20%?	Poly	2%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 12%-16%?	Poly	1%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by at least 20%?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

28%

Top Probability

$15.70K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The general runoff election for the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the November 3, 2026 general runoff election for Mayor of Los Angeles. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** LA Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 4, 2026 (24 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The general runoff election for the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the November 3, 2026 general runoff election for Mayor of Los Angeles.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The general runoff election for the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the November 3, 2026 general runoff election for Mayor"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $178.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by at least 20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $470
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 16%-20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $937
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 12%-16%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $625
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 8%-12%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $795
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 4%-8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 0%-4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 4%-8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 8%-12%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 12%-16%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $947
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 16%-20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $544
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by at least 20%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics