This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

U.S. nuclear test by...?

Name: U.S. nuclear test by...?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$655.75K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

U.S. nuclear test by...?

Vol

$655.75K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $655.75K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $655.75K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	Poly	11%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	Poly	8%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

11%

Top Probability

$655.75K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** U.S. nuclear test by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $45.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $47.5K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.96)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $32.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics