Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

How strong will Simon be?

Name: How strong will Simon be?
End: 2026-10-22T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$17.52K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How strong will Simon be?

Vol

$17.52K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $17.52K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $17.52K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Simon peak at Category 4?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Simon peak at Category 4?	Poly	97%
Will Simon peak at Category 5?	Poly	4%
Will Simon peak at Category 3?	Poly	1%
Will Simon peak at Category 1 or weaker?	Poly	0%
Will Simon peak at Category 2?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$17.52K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Simon (NHC designation EP202026). Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Simon in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How strong will Simon be?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 22, 2026 (11 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Simon (NHC designation EP202026). Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Simon in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.

The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Simon (NHC designation EP202026). Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Simon in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.

The category is stated in the advisory and is d"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $17.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.72)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Simon peak at Category 1 or weaker?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $564
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Simon peak at Category 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $889
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Simon peak at Category 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $3.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Simon peak at Category 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Simon peak at Category 5?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 22, 2026): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate