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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In the upcoming KHL game, scheduled for January 20 at 11:30AM ET: If Shanghai Dragons win, the market will resolve to "Shanghai Dragons". If Spartak Moscow win, the market will resolve to "Spartak Moscow". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of
Prediction markets on Polymarket price a Shanghai Dragons victory at just 32%, implying the market assigns approximately a 1-in-3 chance of an upset. With "HC Sochi" shares trading at the implied inverse probability of 68%, the market clearly views the visiting Russian club as the substantial favorite. This pricing suggests bettors see a Shanghai win as possible but unlikely, a view typical for a team near the bottom of the KHL standings facing a mid-table opponent.
Two primary factors explain the lopsided odds. First, the historical and seasonal performance gap is significant. The Shanghai Dragons have consistently been one of the KHL's weakest teams since joining the league, often finishing at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. HC Sochi, while not a title contender, typically fields a more competitive roster with greater depth. Second, home-ice advantage is heavily discounted in this pricing. Despite the game being in Shanghai, the market reflects a belief that Sochi's superior skill and structure will prevail, a common theme when evaluating Chinese KHL teams against established Russian clubs. The thin trading volume of only $1K indicates this is a niche market, likely dominated by informed hockey bettors rather than casual speculators.
Given the imminent resolution, odds are unlikely to shift dramatically without breaking news. However, last-minute player availability reports could move the needle. An announcement that a key Sochi scorer is out injured or that Shanghai is starting a hot goaltender could narrow the probability gap. The primary risk to the consensus view is the unpredictable nature of a single hockey game, where a strong goaltending performance or a cluster of power-play opportunities for Shanghai could lead to an upset that the 32% probability already acknowledges is within the realm of possibility.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
1 market tracked

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| Market | Platform | Price |
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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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