Name: Highest temperature in Seattle on January 23?
End: 2026-01-23T12:00:00.000Z

What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Prediction markets currently give a roughly 1 in 3 chance that the high temperature in Seattle on February 21 will be between 46 and 47 degrees Fahrenheit. This is the leading forecast among nine specific temperature ranges being tracked. While this is the most probable single outcome, the market shows significant uncertainty. The combined odds for temperatures above 47 degrees are nearly as high, indicating traders see a real possibility for a milder day.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

The forecast reflects Seattle's typical late-winter weather patterns and recent model guidance. February in Seattle is often cool and damp, with average highs in the low 50s. A high in the 46-47°F range is very close to the historical average for the date, making it a reasonable baseline prediction.

Two main factors are likely shaping the current odds. First, short-term weather models available to traders probably show a weak weather system or cloud cover that would keep temperatures subdued. Second, the El Niño climate pattern, which has been influencing North American weather, often brings warmer and drier conditions to the Pacific Northwest. This might explain why traders are also assigning decent probability to temperatures climbing above 47 degrees, as El Niño can lead to unexpected mild spells.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The key event is simply the day itself, February 21. The final forecast will solidify as the date approaches. The most important signal to watch is the National Weather Service forecast for Seattle-Tacoma International Airport issued on February 20. Any significant shift in the predicted position or strength of Pacific storm systems or high-pressure ridges in the days prior will cause the market probabilities to adjust rapidly.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Markets for short-term weather outcomes are often quite accurate. They efficiently aggregate data from public forecasts, weather models, and amateur meteorologists. However, their reliability decreases for small, specific ranges like a single degree of temperature. A shift in wind direction or cloud cover an hour before the daily high is recorded can change the outcome. For a broader question like "Will the high be above 50°F?" markets are typically more reliable than for pinpointing an exact two-degree window.

Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets assign a 37% probability to Seattle's high temperature falling between 46-47°F on February 21. This price indicates the market views this specific range as the most likely single outcome among nine discrete options, which span from below 40°F to above 52°F. However, a 37% chance also means traders see a 63% probability the temperature lands outside this two-degree band. The market is thinly traded with only $33,000 in total volume, suggesting low confidence and high potential for price volatility. With resolution based on data from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, the outcome is now certain and awaiting final verification.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The pricing reflects typical late-February weather patterns for the Pacific Northwest. Seattle's average high temperature in late February historically sits near 50°F, making the 46-47°F forecast a plausible, slightly cooler-than-average scenario. Traders likely weighed recent forecast models against climatology. The concentration of probability in a narrow band, rather than being spread evenly, shows market participants had a specific forecast in mind. The low volume, however, signals this consensus was weak and based on limited capital commitment. In weather markets, thin liquidity often amplifies the influence of a single updated forecast from sources like the National Weather Service.

What Could Change These Odds

For a resolved weather market, the odds are fixed. The 37% probability was the final market assessment before trading stopped and real-world data collection began. The key variable now is the verification process itself. The market resolves based on the highest recorded temperature at Sea-Tac Airport, per Wunderground data. Any discrepancy in sensor data, reporting delays, or interpretation of the "highest temperature recorded for all times on this day" could theoretically prompt a resolution challenge, though this is rare for straightforward meteorological measurements. The outcome is now a matter of public record, awaiting official market settlement.

Analysis for a Resolved Event

This market functioned as a short-term weather derivative. The 37% price on the 46-47°F range likely represented the latest reliable forecast available to traders before the event. Compared to a public weather forecast stating a "high of 47°F," the prediction market price quantified the uncertainty around that point estimate. The low trading volume is typical for highly specific, short-duration weather contracts, as they attract limited arbitrage and are often dominated by speculative retail traders rather than institutional weather risk managers. The result will demonstrate whether crowd-sourced probability estimates can effectively calibrate uncertainty around a precise meteorological outcome.

Highest temperature in Seattle on January 23?

Highest temperature in Seattle on January 23?

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