Will the CRA win more than 172 seats in the Japanese snap election? | PredictPedia

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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Will the CRA win more than 172 seats in the Japanese snap election?

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$4.67K

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Will the CRA win more than 172 seats in the Japanese snap election?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.67K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.67K

100%

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Will Centrist Reform Alliance win above 172 seats in the 2026 Japanese House of Representatives election?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Centrist Reform Alliance win above 172 seats in the 2026 Japanese House of Representatives election?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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Top Probability

$4.67K

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About This Event

On Feb 8, 2026 If the Centrist Reform Alliance has won more than 172 seats in the 2026 Japanese House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the cand

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the CRA win more than 172 seats in the Japanese snap election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Feb 8, 2026

If the Centrist Reform Alliance has won more than 172 seats in the 2026 Japanese House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either the time for legal challenges has expired, challenges have been resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the cand

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Centrist Reform Alliance has won more than 172 seats in the 2026 Japanese House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral au"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $909.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Centrist Reform Alliance win above 172 seats in the 2026 Japanese House of Representatives election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 8, 2027): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

3¢

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Will the CRA win more than 172 seats in the Japanese snap election?

Will the CRA win more than 172 seats in the Japanese snap election?

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Will Centrist Reform Alliance win above 172 seats in the 2026 Japanese House of Representatives election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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