$88.38K
1
12
$88.38K
1
12
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the listed team/country that wins the gold medal for Men’s Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics. If it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 Men’s Ice Hockey Olympic gold medal according to the rules of the competition (i.e., the team is eliminated), the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No.” If the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics are cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no
Prediction markets currently assign Canada a 44% probability of winning the men's ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 Milano Cortina Olympics. This price, trading on Polymarket, indicates the market views Canada as the clear favorite, but far from a sure bet. The 44-cent price suggests a slightly less than even chance when accounting for the vigorish, or market fee, implying the true implied probability is closer to a plurality of likelihood among competitors. The next closest contenders, like the "Field" option representing all other nations, trade at significantly lower odds, highlighting Canada's dominant position in the market's view. Total market liquidity remains thin at $88,000, which can lead to price volatility as the tournament approaches.
Canada's favored status is rooted in its historical dominance and current roster construction. As the reigning Olympic champion from 2022 and a perennial hockey powerhouse with 9 gold medals, the market prices in institutional strength. Critically, the 2026 Olympics will again feature NHL players, allowing Canada to deploy a roster of elite talent from the world's best league. The prospective player pool, including generational stars like Connor McDavid, provides a tangible talent advantage that oddsmakers respect. Furthermore, the historical performance gap in best-on-best tournaments between Canada and other top nations like the United States, Sweden, and Russia (competing as individuals) is a key factor baked into the price.
The primary catalyst for odds movement will be the official NHL player participation agreement and subsequent team roster announcements in late 2025 and early 2026. Any uncertainty around NHL attendance would significantly disrupt the market, historically favoring Canada less in such scenarios. Tournament draw and group stage performance in February 2026 will also cause immediate volatility, especially an early loss in the single-elimination knockout rounds. A key risk to the consensus is the goaltending question for Canada, which has been a relative vulnerability in recent best-on-best events. A hot opposing goaltender or an injury to a key Canadian star could rapidly shift probabilities against the current favorite.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns which national team will win the gold medal in Men's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano Cortina, Italy. The market resolves based on the official outcome of the tournament, scheduled for February 2026. If a listed team is eliminated from contention, its corresponding market resolves to 'No.' The event marks a significant return for NHL players to the Olympic stage after their absence from the 2018 PyeongChang Games and the league's withdrawal from the 2022 Beijing Games due to COVID-19 concerns. This reinstatement, confirmed through an agreement between the NHL, NHL Players' Association, and the International Ice Hockey Federation, has reignited global interest in the tournament, restoring it as the pinnacle of international hockey. The competition will feature the world's best professional players representing their home countries, with traditional powerhouses like Canada, the United States, Russia (competing as neutral athletes), Sweden, and Finland expected to be top contenders. The outcome is highly anticipated due to the high-stakes nature of best-on-best international hockey, which occurs infrequently outside of the Olympics. Bettors and fans are closely monitoring team formations, player availability, and pre-tournament performances to gauge potential winners.
Men's ice hockey has been a centerpiece of the Winter Olympics since 1920, with Canada dominating the early years, winning six of the first seven gold medals. The sport's Olympic history is defined by iconic moments, most notably the 'Miracle on Ice' in 1980 when the United States' amateur team defeated the heavily favored Soviet Union. The tournament transformed in 1998 when the NHL first allowed its players to participate, creating a true best-on-best competition. Since then, Canada has been the most successful nation, winning gold in 2002, 2010, and 2014. The 2010 final in Vancouver, where Sidney Crosby scored the overtime winner against the United States, is considered one of the greatest games in hockey history. However, the NHL withheld its players from the 2018 PyeongChang Games, leading to a gold medal for the Olympic Athletes from Russia. The league also withdrew from the 2022 Beijing Games due to COVID-19 disruption, resulting in Finland winning its first-ever Olympic gold in men's hockey. The 2026 Games will be the first with full NHL participation since 2014, re-establishing the historical precedent for the highest level of competition.
The Olympic gold medal in men's hockey carries immense national prestige and is a significant marker of a country's sporting culture. For hockey-centric nations like Canada, it is a matter of national identity and pride, with victory often celebrated as a unifying national event. The tournament also has substantial economic implications, driving television ratings, sponsorship deals, and merchandise sales globally. For the NHL, Olympic participation is a valuable marketing tool to grow the game internationally, potentially expanding its fanbase in Europe and Asia. The outcome can influence youth participation in hockey within the winning country and bolster the legacy of the players involved, cementing their status as national icons. A gold medal is often the crowning achievement of a player's career, impacting their historical standing and commercial endorsements.
As of late 2024, the core agreement for NHL player participation in the 2026 Olympics is finalized. National federations have begun preliminary planning, with some, like USA Hockey, having already named their head coach. The focus is now on the 2024-25 and 2025-26 NHL seasons, where player performance and health will determine final roster selections. The International Olympic Committee and IIHF are finalizing the tournament format and schedule, expected to be announced in early 2025. Key players like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews have publicly expressed their strong desire to compete, barring injury. The Russian team's status remains a complex geopolitical question, with athletes likely required to compete as neutrals under a yet-to-be-determined designation.
Yes. The NHL, NHL Players' Association, and International Ice Hockey Federation have reached an agreement allowing all NHL players to participate in the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics, barring any last-minute disruptions.
Canada is typically installed as the early favorite by sportsbooks due to its historical dominance and depth of elite talent, particularly with Connor McDavid expected to make his Olympic debut. However, the United States, Sweden, and Finland are considered strong contenders.
Following sanctions due to the war in Ukraine, Russian athletes are currently banned from competing under their national flag at the Olympics. They may be allowed to participate as Individual Neutral Athletes, but the final decision on their eligibility rests with the International Olympic Committee.
The men's ice hockey tournament for the 2026 Milano Cortina Games is scheduled to be held at the Arena di Verona in Verona, Italy, and the Milan Forum in Milan, Italy.
The last Winter Olympics with full NHL participation was the 2014 Games in Sochi, Russia, where Canada won the gold medal. The NHL did not send players to the 2018 or 2022 Games.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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12 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
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| Poly | 44% |
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