Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday?

Name: Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday?
End: 2026-01-15T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$14.95K

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Markets

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Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday?

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Polymarket

markets · $14.95K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.95K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$14.95K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement during the day on which they next meet in person in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Maria Machado personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling Machado weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “Macha

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 15, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement during the day on which they next meet in person in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Maria Machado personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling Machado weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “Macha

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement during the day on which they next meet in person in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Maria Machado personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes ca"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $15.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.7K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.61)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 15, 2026): Vol $15.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

1¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/9HuKm8" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday?"></iframe>

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Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday?

Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday?

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Will Trump disparage Machado on Thursday?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)