Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Berlin state election: BSW vote share?

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$935.92

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Berlin state election: BSW vote share?

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$935.92

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Volume DistributionTotal: $935.92

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6 markets tracked

Will BSW receive at least 4% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will BSW receive at least 4% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?	Kalshi	98%
Will BSW receive at least 3% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?	Kalshi	98%
Will BSW receive at least 2% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?	Kalshi	98%
Will BSW receive at least 1% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?	Kalshi	98%
Will BSW receive at least 6% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?	Kalshi	2%
Will BSW receive at least 5% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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98%

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$935.92

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About This Event

in 2026 If the percentage of valid second votes, Zweitstimmen, received by BSW in the 2026 Berlin state election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is, second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator. Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions, use certifi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Berlin state election: BSW vote share?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2026

If the percentage of valid second votes, Zweitstimmen, received by BSW in the 2026 Berlin state election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is, second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator. Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions, use certifi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by BSW in the 2026 Berlin state election is 6% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is (second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $936
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will BSW receive at least 6% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 20, 2027): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will BSW receive at least 5% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 20, 2027): Vol $11
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will BSW receive at least 4% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 20, 2027): Vol $364
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will BSW receive at least 3% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 20, 2027): Vol $245
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will BSW receive at least 2% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 20, 2027): Vol $300
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will BSW receive at least 1% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Sep 20, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Berlin state election: BSW vote share?

Volume$935.92

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KALSHI

Will BSW receive at least 4% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will BSW receive at least 4% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by BSW in the 2026 Berlin state election is 4% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is (second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded

KALSHI

Will BSW receive at least 3% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will BSW receive at least 3% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by BSW in the 2026 Berlin state election is 3% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is (second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded

KALSHI

Will BSW receive at least 2% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will BSW receive at least 2% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by BSW in the 2026 Berlin state election is 2% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is (second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded

KALSHI

Will BSW receive at least 1% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will BSW receive at least 1% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by BSW in the 2026 Berlin state election is 1% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is (second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded

KALSHI

Will BSW receive at least 6% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will BSW receive at least 6% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by BSW in the 2026 Berlin state election is 6% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is (second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/9K1FmT" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Berlin state election: BSW vote share?"></iframe>

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Berlin state election: BSW vote share?

Berlin state election: BSW vote share?

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Will BSW receive at least 4% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

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Events (1)

Berlin state election: BSW vote share?

Markets (6)

Will BSW receive at least 4% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 4% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 3% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 3% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 2% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 2% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 1% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 1% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 6% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 6% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

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Will BSW receive at least 4% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Berlin state election: BSW vote share?

Will BSW receive at least 4% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 4% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 3% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 3% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 2% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 2% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 1% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 1% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 6% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

Will BSW receive at least 6% of valid second votes in the 2026 Berlin state election?

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