Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)

Name: UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)
End: 2026-10-18T03:59:59.999Z

Total Volume

$386.29

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)

Vol

$386.29

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $386.29

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $386.29

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

19 markets tracked

Will the fight end before Round 3?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(19)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the fight end before Round 3?	Poly	51%
Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 1?	Poly	51%
Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 3?	Poly	51%
Will Mandel Nallo win in Round 1?	Poly	51%
Will the fight end in a decision or draw?	Poly	51%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will Nate Landwehr win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will Mandel Nallo win by KO or TKO?	Poly	50%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	50%
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	50%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	49%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	49%
Will the fight be won by decision?	Poly	49%
Will the fight end before Round 2?	Poly	49%
Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 2?	Poly	49%
Will Mandel Nallo win in Round 2?	Poly	49%
Will Mandel Nallo win in Round 3?	Poly	49%
UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)	Poly	29%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	29%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

51%

Top Probability

$386.29

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Nate Landwehr" if Nate Landwehr is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mandel Nallo at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026. It will resolve to "Mandel Nallo" if Mandel Nallo is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 31, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 18, 2026 (7 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Nate Landwehr" if Nate Landwehr is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mandel Nallo at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026.

It will resolve to "Mandel Nallo" if Mandel Nallo is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 31, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Nate Landwehr" if Nate Landwehr is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mandel Nallo at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026.

It will resolve to "Mandel Nallo" if Mandel Nallo is officially declared the winner.

If the fight"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $386
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $386
  DATA: [Nate Landwehr: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [Mandel Nallo: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Nate Landwehr win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Mandel Nallo win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the fight be won by decision?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the fight end before Round 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the fight end before Round 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Mandel Nallo win in Round 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Mandel Nallo win in Round 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Mandel Nallo win in Round 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the fight end in a decision or draw?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)

Volume$386.29

Markets19

19 of 19

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POLYMARKET

Will the fight end before Round 3?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will the fight end before Round 3?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Nate Landwehr and Mandel Nallo at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, officially ends before Round 3 begins. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage,

POLYMARKET

Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nate Landwehr defeats Mandel Nallo at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 1, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No

POLYMARKET

Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 3?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 3?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nate Landwehr defeats Mandel Nallo at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 3, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No

POLYMARKET

Will Mandel Nallo win in Round 1?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will Mandel Nallo win in Round 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mandel Nallo defeats Nate Landwehr at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 1, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No

POLYMARKET

Will the fight end in a decision or draw?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

CLOSING SOON

Will the fight end in a decision or draw?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Nate Landwehr and Mandel Nallo at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, scheduled for October 17, 2026, is decided by the judges' scorecards or officially declared a draw, including unanimous, split, majority, and technical decisions, and technic

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Oct 18, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

48¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/9KyZXG" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)"></iframe>

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UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)

UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)

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Will the fight end before Round 3?

AI Analysis

About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)

Markets (19)

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 1?

Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 1?

Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 3?

Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 3?

Will Mandel Nallo win in Round 1?

Will Mandel Nallo win in Round 1?

Will the fight end in a decision or draw?

Will the fight end in a decision or draw?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

UFC Fight Night: Nate Landwehr vs. Mandel Nallo (Lightweight, Main Card)

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will the fight end before Round 3?

Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 1?

Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 1?

Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 3?

Will Nate Landwehr win in Round 3?

Will Mandel Nallo win in Round 1?

Will Mandel Nallo win in Round 1?

Will the fight end in a decision or draw?

Will the fight end in a decision or draw?

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Discussion

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