Name: Champions League: League Phase Winner
End: 2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

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Champions League: League Phase Winner | PredictPedia

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2 markets tracked

Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?

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Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?	Poly	100%
Will Bayern Munich finish first in UCL league phase?	Poly	0%

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Champions League: League Phase Winner
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2025 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the team that finishes first in the league phase of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. 

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

If two or more clubs are level on points, the rankin

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the team that finishes first in the league phase of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. 

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $114.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $28.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Bayern Munich finish first in UCL league phase?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $49.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2025): Vol $64.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

50¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/9MUm9V" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Champions League: League Phase Winner"></iframe>

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Champions League: League Phase Winner

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Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Champions League: League Phase Winner

Markets (2)

Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?

Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?

Will Bayern Munich finish first in UCL league phase?

Will Bayern Munich finish first in UCL league phase?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Champions League: League Phase Winner

Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?

Will Arsenal finish first in UCL league phase?

Will Bayern Munich finish first in UCL league phase?

Will Bayern Munich finish first in UCL league phase?

Related News & Context

Discussion

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