OH-07 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $27.8K
1
10
OH-07 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $27.8K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 0-3% at 18%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 0-3%18%
- Democrat 12%+16%
- Republican 0-3%14.3%
- Democrat 3-6%13%
- Democrat 9-12%12.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $27.8K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 OH-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OH-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks about the margin of victory in the 2026 OH-07 House election, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each bracket market asks whether a named party's candidate wins by a given range. Democratic and Republican nominees are the only options for those parties, and independent candidates "will not represent options for either party" [1].
The rules set several conditions that matter when comparing brackets. A result that falls exactly on a boundary "will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Ties are handled by a specific tiebreak rule, and if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market "will resolve to 'Other'" [1]. A recount started before certification keeps the market open until the recount is completed [1].
The saved wording and listed end time differ. The source states the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026," while the listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The end time is a listed closing time, not a statement of when results will be certified.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T16:09:54.181Z [1]. These are historical snapshot values, not live quotes. The saved sample includes all 10 markets for this event, with no partial sample flag [1]. Within that sample, the highest Yes prices are Democratic 0% to 3% at 0.195, Democratic 3% to 6% at 0.16, and Republican 0% to 3% at 0.152 [1]. The lowest are Republican 9% to 12% at 0.005 and Republican 12% or more at 0.0045 [1].
These numbers are not verified probabilities, and volume is not part of this reading. The sample also does not include an "Other" contract, so this snapshot cannot tell you how that outcome was priced. Brackets for different parties and ranges should not be averaged or treated as one distribution, and differing prices do not by themselves show an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price was at its level, how many traders took each side, or whether the prices have changed since the snapshot. It also does not establish the actual vote result, certification timing, or any recount. Readers should check the current state of the provider page and the official rules before relying on any figure.
References
- Polymarket: OH-07 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T15:00:06.111Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a market on the margin of victory in the 2026 election for the U.S. House seat in Ohio's 7th congressional district (OH-07). The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The rules state that the 2026 OH-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The saved event groups several bracket contracts together. Some ask whether the Democratic Party candidate will win by a given range of margins, and others ask the same about the Republican Party candidate. Each bracket is a separate yes or no contract. The listed end time for these contracts is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the provider's listed close, not the date the official result will be certified. For the purposes of the contract, candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options. Independent candidates do not count as either option [1]. Candidate names may appear in the contract for convenience, and if a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and resolution follows the replacement nominee [1]. Resolution depends on the official vote count once it has been made official. The primary resolution source is the official result published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount is started before the total becomes official, the market stays open until the recount is complete and the vote is official [1].
Historical Context
The supplied background pages describe other House elections rather than the OH-07 race. The 2018 House elections were held on November 6, 2018, and voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across the 50 states [2]. The 2024 elections in Ohio were held on November 5, 2024, to elect fifteen U.S. representatives, one from each of the state's congressional districts, and they coincided with the presidential election and other contests. The primary elections took place on March 19, 2024 [3]. These pages provide general context for how House elections are structured in Ohio and nationally. They do not describe the 2026 OH-07 contest or its candidates.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how many percentage points separate the top two candidates in one House race, not which party wins the seat. A Democratic bracket resolves based on a Democratic win by the stated range, and a Republican bracket resolves on a Republican win by that range [1]. Because the margin is calculated from shares of valid votes, the contract depends on the official count rather than preliminary totals [1]. Anyone reading the contract should check the exact bracket wording, since the rules say that a margin falling exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if the result falls exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
What happens if two candidates tie for the most votes?
If the tie is between two listed candidates, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, it resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, it resolves to Other [1].
What if the election results are not known by the deadline?
The rules state that if the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].
Do independent candidates count?
No. Independent candidates do not represent options for either party in this market [1].
What happens if a nominee is replaced before election day?
The name in the contract is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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