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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

OH-01 House Election Margin of Victory

OH-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Vol

PM $20.6K

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Events

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Markets

10

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 9-12% at 18.5%.

Polymarket

  1. Democrat 9-12%18.5%
  2. Democrat 6-9%16%
  3. Democrat 12-15%15.3%
  4. Democrat 18-21%12%
  5. Democrat 15-18%11.5%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $20.6K

Reported volume ยท provider units

10

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

The 2026 OH-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OH-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.

Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The contracts in this group track the margin of victory in the 2026 OH-01 House election. The source defines margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each contract is a bracket for one party's candidate. "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to the nominees of those parties, and independent candidates "will not represent options for either party" [1].

The wording differs across brackets. Some are ranges, such as "by 9%-12%," and some are open-ended, such as "by 21% or more" and "by 3% or more" [1]. The source also states that "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1].

The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, and the source says the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That is a listed close time and an expected election date, not a confirmed result. The source also says that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The contract rules include tie-breaking and recount provisions, which are relevant if the count is close [1].

Reading the snapshot

The saved data was observed at 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z, and the packet was retrieved at 2026-10-18T05:42:48.497Z [1]. These prices describe that earlier observation only. They do not show live prices.

The sample includes 10 markets, all of which were saved, and the coverage record marks the sample as complete [1]. Among these Yes prices, the highest is 0.175 for Democrat by 9%-12%, and the lowest is 0.032 for Republican by 0%-3% [1]. Each bracket is a separate contract, so these figures should not be combined or averaged. The Yes prices are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. A bracket's price being lower than another's does not indicate a mispricing or an arbitrage opportunity.

What remains uncertain

The source notes that the saved markets "do not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because the sample is limited to these brackets, no claim about the full outcome field can be made. The snapshot also does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not show trading activity or the number of participants.

References

  1. Polymarket: OH-01 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
OH-07 House Election Margin of Victory

OH-07 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $27.8K
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-07 House election by 0%-3%?Yes 18%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-07 House election by 12% or more?Yes 16%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-07 House election by 0%-3%?Yes 14.3%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
OH-04 House Election Margin of Victory

OH-04 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $23.1K
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-04 House election by 30%-35%?Yes 32.9%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-04 House election by 35%-40%?Yes 27.2%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-04 House election by 25%-30%?Yes 19.1%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
OH-09 House Election Margin of Victory

OH-09 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $22.8K
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-09 House election by 0%-3%?Yes 19.5%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-09 House election by 12% or more?Yes 18.7%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-09 House election by 3%-6%?Yes 17.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
OH-15 House Election Margin of Victory

OH-15 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $17.0K
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-15 House election by 3%-6%?Yes 21.1%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-15 House election by 6%-9%?Yes 17.5%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-15 House election by 0%-3%?Yes 17.3%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
OH-11 House Election Margin of Victory

OH-11 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $16.1K
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-11 House election by 60%-65%?Yes 32.5%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-11 House election by 65%-70%?Yes 28%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-11 House election by 55%-60%?Yes 17.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
OH-10 House Election Margin of Victory

OH-10 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $15.2K
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-10 House election by 6%-9%?Yes 18.5%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-10 House election by 3%-6%?Yes 16.5%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OH-10 House election by 0%-3%?Yes 13.1%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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Same-question pairs

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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

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