Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?

Total Volume

$13.50K

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When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?

Vol

$13.50K

Events

Markets

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $13.50K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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Volume DistributionTotal: $13.50K

100%

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8 markets tracked

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	97%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026?	Kalshi	94%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?	Kalshi	88%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?	Kalshi	84%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?	Kalshi	74%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 1AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?	Kalshi	46%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?	Kalshi	40%
Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 11PM ET on Nov 3, 2026?	Kalshi	12%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$13.50K

Volume

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About This Event

Nov 3, 2026 election If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov X 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or equivalent clear language indicating the outlet has determined the winner. The call must appear on one of the outlet's primary platforms, main website, television broadcast, or official social me

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Nov 3, 2026 election

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov X 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or equivalent clear language indicating the outlet has determined the winner. The call must appear on one of the outlet's primary platforms, main website, television broadcast, or official social me

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, o"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $13.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 14, 2026): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 11, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 6, 2026): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 1AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 11PM ET on Nov 3, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?

Volume$13.50K

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or

KALSHI

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026?

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, o

KALSHI

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, o

KALSHI

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.5¢No 16.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or

KALSHI

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.5¢No 26.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of a winner for the 2026 U.S. House majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The call must be an explicit declaration that a candidate, party, or option has won, will win, is projected to win, or

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When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?

When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?

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Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?

Markets (8)

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?

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Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Jan 1, 2027?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 14, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 11, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 12AM ET on Nov 6, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?

Will AP call the 2026 U.S. House majority before 4AM ET on Nov 4, 2026?

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