Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st? | PredictPedia

This event has ended. Showing historical data.

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?

Name: Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.14M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.14M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.14M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$1.14M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Repub

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Mojtaba Khamenei. 

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Repub

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clavicular is officially named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran (or a clear direct replacement title for the role) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution of this market will be based "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.14M
* **Total Liquidity:** $350.2K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $1.14M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

0¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/9TrlK1" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?

Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)