Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Fed funds rate after Dec 2027 meeting?

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$86.86K

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Fed funds rate after Dec 2027 meeting?

Vol

$86.86K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Kalshi

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Volume DistributionTotal: $86.86K

100%

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25 markets tracked

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(25)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	88%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	83%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	80%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	76%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	75%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	75%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	50%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	50%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	50%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	11%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	9%
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

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88%

Top Probability

$86.86K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Dec 8, 2027 If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than X following the Federal Reserve's Dec 8, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 8, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Fed funds rate after Dec 2027 meeting?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Dec 8, 2027

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than X following the Federal Reserve's Dec 8, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Dec 8, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 6.00% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 8, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $86.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 6.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $25.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $10.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $50.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 87.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 75.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $9
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $11
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $12
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $13
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $14
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 1.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 0.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 15, 2027): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Fed funds rate after Dec 2027 meeting?

Volume$86.86K

Markets25

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KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.5¢No 12.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.00% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 8, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a

KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.25% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 8, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a

KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.50% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 8, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a

KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 3.00% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 8, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a

KALSHI

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 2.75% following the Federal Reserve's Dec 8, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a

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Fed funds rate after Dec 2027 meeting?

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Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

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Events (1)

Fed funds rate after Dec 2027 meeting?

Markets (25)

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

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Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Fed funds rate after Dec 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 8, 2027 meeting?

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