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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Farrer By-Election Winner

Name: Farrer By-Election Winner
End: 2026-05-09T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$174.23K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Farrer By-Election Winner

Vol

$174.23K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $174.23K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $174.23K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Poly	78%
Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Poly	24%
Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Poly	0%
Will Helen Dalton win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Poly	0%
Will Raissa Butkowski win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

78%

Top Probability

$174.23K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of cre

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Farrer By-Election Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 9, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of cre

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $174.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $30.5K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.72)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 9, 2026): Vol $96.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Raissa Butkowski win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 9, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 9, 2026): Vol $42.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Helen Dalton win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 9, 2026): Vol $24.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 9, 2026): Vol $7.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 77.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 22.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics