$14.28K
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$14.28K
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This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s February monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its February 17, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#so
Prediction markets are pricing in near certainty that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will hold its Official Cash Rate steady in February 2026. On Polymarket, the "No Change" contract trades at 98 cents, implying a 98% probability. This overwhelming confidence suggests traders view a rate hold as virtually guaranteed, with minimal perceived risk of a cut or hike.
The primary driver is the RBNZ's established policy trajectory and recent economic data. The central bank has historically moved rates in a measured, forward-guided manner, and by early 2026, markets anticipate it will have concluded its current tightening cycle and be in a stable holding pattern. Current inflation trends and a cooling labor market, as indicated in recent RBNZ statements and economic surveys, support a narrative that further restrictive action will be unnecessary. The market is effectively pricing this meeting as a non-event for policy, reflecting confidence that the economic conditions warrant a pause.
While the odds are extremely skewed, a dramatic shift in incoming data before the February decision could introduce volatility. Key releases include the Q4 2025 Consumer Price Index and employment reports. A significant upside inflation surprise could resurrect hawkish bets, though the 98% price leaves little room for movement. Conversely, a sharp deterioration in economic activity, such as a pronounced rise in unemployment, could spark speculation about an earlier-than-anticipated rate cut. However, with the meeting over a month away and liquidity in this market thin at approximately $14,000, any major price move would require a fundamental and unexpected shift in the economic outlook.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on the monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in February, specifically the change to the Official Cash Rate (OCR). The OCR is the interest rate set by New Zealand's central bank that influences the cost of borrowing throughout the economy. The RBNZ's Monetary Policy Committee meets approximately seven times per year to review economic conditions and adjust the OCR to meet its primary mandate of maintaining price stability, which it defines as keeping annual inflation between 1% and 3% over the medium term. The February 2026 decision is a scheduled review that will be announced on February 17, 2026, following the committee's deliberations. Market participants, economists, and the public closely monitor these decisions as they directly impact mortgage rates, business investment, the New Zealand dollar's exchange rate, and overall economic growth. The prediction market allows participants to speculate on the outcome, whether the OCR will be increased, decreased, or held steady, based on their interpretation of economic data and the RBNZ's policy signals. Interest in this specific decision stems from its timing within the economic cycle, prevailing inflationary pressures, and the central bank's forward guidance from previous statements. The outcome will provide a critical signal about the RBNZ's assessment of the economic outlook and its policy trajectory for the coming months.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand pioneered inflation targeting in 1990, becoming one of the first central banks in the world to adopt a formal, public inflation target. This framework has guided OCR decisions for over three decades. The OCR itself was introduced in March 1999, replacing a system of monetary conditions indices. Historically, the OCR has fluctuated significantly in response to economic shocks. It reached a peak of 8.25% in July 2008 during the global inflation scare preceding the Financial Crisis, before being cut aggressively to a then-record low of 2.5% by April 2009. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the RBNZ cut the OCR to an unprecedented 0.25% in March 2020 and later introduced a Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) program. The most recent historical cycle of note is the aggressive tightening phase that began in October 2021, when the RBNZ became one of the first advanced economy central banks to start raising rates post-pandemic to combat surging inflation. By May 2023, the OCR had risen to 5.5%, its highest level since December 2008. This historical pattern of dramatic shifts from stimulus to restraint provides the backdrop for understanding the potential direction and magnitude of any future OCR change. Past decisions have often been influenced by external commodity price shocks, particularly dairy prices, and housing market dynamics, which are uniquely influential in the New Zealand economy.
The RBNZ's OCR decision has profound implications for the financial well-being of New Zealand households and businesses. Approximately 60% of New Zealand mortgages are on floating or short-term fixed rates, meaning changes to the OCR flow through to repayment costs relatively quickly. A rate hike increases debt servicing burdens, potentially reducing consumer spending and cooling the housing market. Conversely, a cut can stimulate borrowing and investment. For businesses, the OCR influences the cost of capital, affecting decisions on expansion, hiring, and inventory. The decision also directly impacts the New Zealand dollar (NZD). A higher-than-expected OCR tends to appreciate the NZD, affecting exporters by making their goods more expensive overseas, while benefiting importers and consumers of foreign goods. Beyond immediate economic effects, the decision signals the central bank's confidence in the economy and its commitment to price stability, which is foundational for long-term investment and planning. Failure to adequately control inflation erodes purchasing power and savings, particularly for those on fixed incomes, while overly restrictive policy can unnecessarily trigger a recession and job losses.
As of late 2025, the economic landscape setting the stage for the February 2026 decision is defined by the RBNZ's ongoing effort to return inflation to its target band. The most recent Monetary Policy Statement and OCR decision in November 2025 would have provided updated economic projections and forward guidance. Financial markets and economists will be analyzing high-frequency data releases in the months leading to February 2026, including quarterly GDP, employment figures, and business confidence surveys, to gauge whether inflationary pressures are subsiding as forecast. The RBNZ's own published schedule confirms the decision announcement for 2:00 PM NZDT on Tuesday, February 17, 2026. The period ahead of this is known as the 'blackout period,' where RBNZ officials refrain from public commentary on monetary policy.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision, including any change to the Official Cash Rate, at 2:00 PM New Zealand Daylight Time (NZDT) on Tuesday, February 17, 2026. This is followed by a press conference with the Governor.
The OCR directly influences the interest rates banks pay to borrow money, which in turn affects the rates they charge customers. Changes to the OCR typically lead to corresponding adjustments in floating mortgage rates and influence the pricing of new fixed-term mortgages, impacting monthly repayments for homeowners.
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is an interest rate set by the RBNZ as a policy tool. The inflation rate, typically measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is the rate at which prices for goods and services are rising. The RBNZ uses the OCR to influence economic activity and, ultimately, to control the inflation rate.
The Official Cash Rate is decided by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). This committee is chaired by the Governor, Adrian Orr, and includes other senior RBNZ officials and external independent members, who collectively assess economic data to reach a decision.
If the RBNZ raises the OCR, borrowing costs for banks increase, which is usually passed on to consumers and businesses as higher interest rates on loans and mortgages. This aims to cool spending and investment, reducing demand-pull inflationary pressures, but can also slow economic growth.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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3 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 99% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
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