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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York? | Kalshi | 50% |
Will Chuck Schumer be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New York? | Kalshi | 46% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2028 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2028 Class III New York Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on who will secure the Democratic nomination for the 2028 United States Senate election in New York for the Class III seat. The market resolves to 'Yes' if a specific candidate, designated as X, wins the Democratic Party's nomination to contest that Senate seat. The election will determine who represents New York in the Senate for a six-year term beginning in January 2029. The current holder of this seat is Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a Democrat first appointed in 2009 and subsequently elected in 2010, 2012, and 2018. Her current term expires on January 3, 2029. Interest in this market stems from New York's status as a reliably Democratic state in federal elections, making the Democratic primary the de facto decisive contest for the Senate seat. The outcome will signal the direction of the state's Democratic Party, potentially reflecting internal debates between progressive and moderate factions, and will have national implications for the Senate's balance of power. Early speculation is already circulating among political operatives and observers, given the high-profile nature of the seat and the lengthy, expensive campaigns typical of New York statewide elections.
New York's Class III Senate seat has been held by Democrats since 1999, when Charles Schumer was elected. Schumer held the seat until his appointment to the Class I seat in 1999, after which Hillary Clinton was elected. When Clinton resigned to become Secretary of State in 2009, Governor David Paterson appointed Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand, then a relatively junior congresswoman from a conservative district, was a surprise choice. She faced initial skepticism from the party's liberal base but consolidated support and won a special election in 2010 with 63 percent of the vote. She was re-elected in 2012 and 2018 by wide margins. The 2018 Democratic primary is particularly instructive for 2028. Despite being an incumbent, Gillibrand faced a progressive challenger, actress and activist Cynthia Nixon, who was simultaneously running for governor. Gillibrand won the primary decisively, with 70 percent of the vote, demonstrating the strength of incumbency even against a well-known insurgent. Historically, open Senate seats in New York trigger competitive and expensive primaries. The 2000 election for the open Class I seat, for example, featured a fierce primary between First Lady Hillary Clinton and Congressman Rick Lazio, though Lazio was the Republican nominee; Clinton won the general election. The last truly competitive Democratic primary for an open Senate seat was in 1992 for the Class I seat, which featured a four-way race eventually won by Attorney General Robert Abrams.
The Democratic nominee for New York's Senate seat will almost certainly become one of the 100 members of the United States Senate, giving them a direct vote on national legislation, Supreme Court confirmations, and foreign policy. The ideological leaning of the nominee influences the Democratic caucus's center of gravity, affecting the party's ability to pass legislation on issues like climate change, healthcare, and immigration. A shift toward a more progressive or moderate senator could alter coalition dynamics in the closely divided Senate. For New Yorkers, the election determines who will advocate for the state's specific interests in Washington, including federal funding for infrastructure, disaster recovery, and urban programs. The race also has significant downstream consequences for New York's political hierarchy. An open seat contest would be a massive, multi-million dollar undertaking that could elevate new political talent, reshape donor networks, and create vacancies in other offices as politicians seek to move up. The outcome signals which faction progressive, moderate, or establishment holds sway within the state's Democratic Party, with implications for future gubernatorial and presidential politics.
As of late 2024, the political landscape for the 2028 race is in a speculative, pre-candidacy phase. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has not publicly announced her intentions regarding re-election. It is considered likely but not certain that she will seek a fourth full term. No major Democratic figures have declared primary challenges against her, and such a challenge would be considered highly unlikely unless she signals retirement. Behind the scenes, potential candidates and their advisors are undoubtedly conducting informal polling and donor outreach, preparing for scenarios should the seat become open. The recent special election victory of Tom Suozzi and the continued high profiles of Letitia James and Jumaane Williams keep their names in circulation for future statewide office. The state Democratic Party apparatus, led by Chair Jay Jacobs, remains aligned with Governor Kathy Hochul and the incumbent senator, suggesting institutional support would flow to Gillibrand if she runs.
The general election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. The Democratic primary will likely be held in late June 2028, as per New York's election calendar, though the exact date will be set by the state legislature in preceding years.
The current senator is Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand. She was initially appointed to the seat in January 2009 and has been elected three times, in 2010, 2012, and 2018. Her current term expires on January 3, 2029.
As of late 2024, Senator Gillibrand has not made a formal announcement about her 2028 re-election plans. It is common for incumbents to declare their intentions closer to the election cycle, often 12-18 months before the primary.
U.S. Senate seats are divided into three classes (I, II, III) to stagger elections so that approximately one-third of the Senate is elected every two years. New York's Class III seat is one of 33 or 34 seats contested in the 2028 election cycle. It is currently held by Senator Gillibrand.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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