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Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Name: 2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
End: 2026-09-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.27K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Vol

$2.27K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.27K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.27K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will August 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will August 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	Poly	98%
Will August 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?	Poly	2%
Will August 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	Poly	1%
Will August 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$2.27K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.na

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 1, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. 

Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.na

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record. 

Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.70)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will August 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $764
  DATA: [Yes: 98.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will August 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $563
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will August 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $526
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will August 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $415
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience