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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

Name: How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
End: 2026-08-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$31.45K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?

Vol

$31.45K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $31.45K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Price gaps

of 0 cross-platform

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Volume DistributionTotal: $31.45K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?	Poly	29%
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?	Poly	19%
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be fewer than 20?	Poly	16%
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?	Poly	16%
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be 40 or more?	Poly	10%
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 20 and 23 inclusive?	Poly	4%
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

29%

Top Probability

$31.45K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many Democratic House members not running in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $31.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $47.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.67)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be fewer than 20?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 20 and 23 inclusive?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $487
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $17.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $4.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be 40 or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics