Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently price a near-certainty that the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) will be part of the next Dutch government formed after the October 29, 2025, election. The "Yes" contract trades at 99% on this cross-platform market, indicating traders view CDA's participation in the eventual ruling coalition as virtually assured. This price reflects extreme confidence, suggesting the market sees the party's inclusion as a foundational element of any viable governing majority, regardless of the election's precise outcome.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Two primary factors explain this consensus. First, the CDA is a historic "coalition anchor" in Dutch politics, having governed for 38 of the past 44 years. Its centrist Christian democratic platform makes it a perennial and flexible coalition partner for both center-right and center-left blocs. Second, current polling for the fragmented Dutch parliament consistently shows no single party or obvious ideological bloc nearing a majority. This fragmentation makes a broad coalition necessary, and the CDA's central positioning and experience in governance are seen as indispensable for any stable government formation. The party's explicit rejection of collaborating with the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) also solidifies its role as a cornerstone for a mainstream coalition.

What Could Change These Odds

The overwhelming 99% price leaves little room for error, but a major shock could theoretically disrupt this outlook. A dramatic collapse in the CDA's vote share below current polling of roughly 5-7 seats could weaken its bargaining power, though its kingmaker potential would likely remain. A more plausible, though still unlikely, scenario is the formation of an unprecedented minimal winning coalition that explicitly excludes the center, such as a pact between the PVV, the center-right VVD, and the new centrist NSC party. However, given deep policy divisions and the CDA's stated refusal to work with the PVV, the market judges such a configuration as highly improbable, hence the current pricing.

Cross-Platform Analysis

This is a cross-platform event on Kalshi and Polymarket. The "Yes" contract is priced at 99% on both platforms, showing perfect alignment and no arbitrage opportunity. This uniformity across two major platforms underscores the strength of the consensus and indicates high liquidity and efficient price discovery for this specific outcome. The lack of a price spread suggests traders on both platforms are evaluating the same fundamental political dynamics and arriving at the same conclusion regarding the CDA's inevitable role in the next government.