Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto
Solana above ___ on January 20?
Total Volume
$3.73K
Events
1
Markets
11
Solana above ___ on January 20?
Vol
$3.73K
|
Events
1
|
Markets
11
$3.73K
1
11
$3.73K
1
11
11 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 99% |
| Poly | 98% |
| Poly | 95% |
| Poly | 67% |
| Poly | 19% |
| Poly | 3% |
| Poly | 2% |
| Poly | 1% |
| Poly | 1% |
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is
Prediction markets are pricing in near-certainty that Solana (SOL) will close above $90 on January 17, 2026. On Polymarket, the "Yes" share for this specific binary outcome is trading at 100%, or $0.99, indicating a 99% implied probability. This price reflects extreme confidence that SOL will not only be above this threshold but likely significantly higher, as traders see no value in the "No" outcome at this strike. The market's volume of $35,000 is considered thin, meaning this high-confidence price could be more susceptible to sharp moves with new information or liquidity.
Two primary factors are solidifying this bullish market consensus. First, the temporal context: the resolution date is over two years away. Given Solana's historical volatility and the multi-year horizon for crypto market cycles, a price target of $90 is viewed as a conservative baseline. SOL has traded well above this level during previous bull market phases, and the market is likely pricing in the expectation of a broader crypto market recovery and expansion by early 2026. Second, fundamental network growth supports long-term optimism. Solana continues to demonstrate high throughput and attract developer activity in decentralized finance (DeFi) and consumer applications. This sustained ecosystem development, barring catastrophic failure, provides a fundamental floor for price appreciation over a multi-year period.
While the current odds appear locked, they could theoretically shift with severe, prolonged negative catalysts. A major, unrecoverable technical failure in the Solana network that erodes developer and user trust could challenge the long-term thesis. Similarly, a broader, multi-year crypto bear market driven by aggressive global regulatory crackdowns or a black swan event in traditional finance could suppress prices across the sector. However, with a 2026 expiration, the market has ample time to price in recoveries from near-term setbacks, which is why the "No" outcome currently holds no value. The thin liquidity means any significant news directly impacting Solana's multi-year viability could cause volatile price moves in this contract, but the overwhelming direction of sentiment remains bullish.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on whether the price of Solana (SOL), a major cryptocurrency, will exceed a specified threshold at a precise moment on January 20. The resolution is determined by the closing price of a one-minute SOL/USDT trading candle on the Binance exchange at 12:00 PM Eastern Time. This type of market is a binary prediction, where participants bet on a simple yes or no outcome based on a verifiable, real-time data point from a leading cryptocurrency exchange. It represents a microcosm of the broader speculative and analytical activity surrounding cryptocurrency price movements, transforming a single data point into a tradable event. Interest in such markets stems from traders and analysts who monitor short-term price volatility, technical indicators, and market sentiment to forecast immediate price action. The specific focus on Solana reflects its status as a leading 'Ethereum competitor' known for high throughput and low transaction costs, making its price a key indicator of sentiment toward alternative layer-1 blockchain platforms. Recent developments, including network upgrades, ecosystem growth, and its correlation with broader crypto market cycles, contribute to the volatility and speculative interest that make these precise price-point predictions relevant.
Solana's price history is marked by extreme volatility, shaped by technological milestones, market cycles, and specific crises. The network launched its mainnet beta in March 2020, with SOL trading below $1. It entered a massive bull run in 2021, propelled by the rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) on its high-speed platform, reaching an all-time high of approximately $260 in November 2021. This period established its reputation as a leading 'Ethereum killer.' However, 2022 brought a severe test. The network suffered a series of full or partial outages, undermining confidence in its reliability. Furthermore, the collapse of the FTX exchange and Alameda Research in November 2022 was a catastrophic event, as both were major investors and proponents of the Solana ecosystem. SOL's price plummeted over 95% from its peak, bottoming near $8 in December 2022. The year 2023 marked a dramatic recovery, often called the 'Solana Summer,' driven by a resurgence in developer activity, the viral success of meme coins like BONK, and improved network stability. This recovery set the stage for its price action entering 2024, making any specific price point a subject of intense scrutiny against this backdrop of boom, bust, and resurgence.
The outcome of this specific price prediction matters as a barometer of short-term market sentiment and trader confidence in Solana's momentum. A 'Yes' resolution, indicating the price is above a key level, could signal sustained bullish conviction, potentially attracting more capital and reinforcing positive narratives around its technology and ecosystem. Conversely, a 'No' could indicate failed resistance at a psychological price point, triggering technical selling and questioning the strength of the recent recovery. Beyond traders, the price level affects the entire Solana ecosystem. A higher SOL price increases the total value locked in its DeFi protocols, boosts the fundraising potential for projects building on it, and enhances the network's security budget. For retail investors and developers, price trends influence platform choice and investment allocation within the competitive layer-1 blockchain landscape. The prediction also reflects broader crypto market health, as Solana is often seen as a high-beta asset, meaning its price movements amplify those of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
As of late 2024, Solana has solidified its position as a leading smart contract platform after a year of significant recovery and growth. The network has maintained prolonged uptime, addressing prior reliability concerns. Its ecosystem has seen a proliferation of new decentralized applications, particularly in areas like decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) and liquid staking. The price of SOL has recovered substantially from its 2022 lows, though it remains below its all-time high, trading in a range that reflects ongoing market debates about its valuation. The broader cryptocurrency market is anticipating the potential impact of Bitcoin ETF approvals and the next Bitcoin halving event, factors that historically influence the entire asset class, including major altcoins like Solana.
Solana is a high-performance, open-source blockchain that uses a unique hybrid consensus model combining Proof of Stake (PoS) and Proof of History (PoH). PoH creates a cryptographic timestamp for transactions, allowing the network to process thousands of transactions per second with very low fees, positioning it as a scalable platform for decentralized applications and crypto-currencies.
Binance is the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, providing exceptional liquidity for the SOL/USDT trading pair. High liquidity minimizes the risk of price manipulation for a single one-minute candle, ensuring the resolution price is a fair and accurate reflection of the global market at that precise moment.
Solana's price is influenced by broader crypto market trends, Bitcoin's price action, network performance and uptime, growth in its developer ecosystem and Total Value Locked (TVL), major partnership announcements, regulatory news for cryptocurrencies, and macroeconomic conditions that affect risk assets.
Following the FTX and Alameda Research collapse in November 2022, SOL's price dropped over 95% from its all-time high due to the entities' large holdings and ecosystem influence. The network faced a crisis of confidence but underwent a significant restructuring and recovery in 2023, regaining developer and user traction.
SOL is the native cryptocurrency of the Solana blockchain, used for paying transaction fees, staking, and governance. USDT (Tether) is a stablecoin, a type of cryptocurrency pegged to the value of the US dollar, designed to minimize price volatility. The SOL/USDT pair shows how many USDT are needed to purchase one SOL.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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