$54.34K
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3
$54.34K
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3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any 1-minute candle for MARU (MARU/USDC) during Q1 2026 (from January 1 to 11:59 PM ET on March 31) has a final “High” price that implies a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.” The FDV will be calculated by multiplying the MARU token price by the total token supply. The resolution source for this market is EdgeX, specifically the MARU/USDC price feed
Prediction markets currently give MARU token roughly an even chance of hitting an $800 million total valuation in the first quarter of 2026. Traders collectively see this as a coin flip, with a 52% probability translating to slightly better than 50/50 odds. This means the crowd is deeply split on whether this specific crypto asset will see a major price surge in the next 31 days.
The mixed sentiment stems from MARU's specific niche and recent history. MARU is the governance token for Maru, a decentralized network focused on building "social" infrastructure for other blockchain applications. Its price and valuation are highly sensitive to developments within its own ecosystem and broader trends in social finance projects.
Two main factors explain the split odds. First, the token has shown significant volatility. A sharp price increase in late 2025 demonstrated its capacity for rapid moves, giving some traders confidence. Second, the target is ambitious. Reaching an $800 million valuation would require a substantial price increase from recent levels, making it a high-stakes bet on new adoption or speculative fervor returning to its sector.
The outcome will be determined by any single minute during January through March 2026 where the price is high enough to hit the valuation target. There is no single scheduled event. Instead, traders are watching for unscheduled announcements from the Maru development team regarding network upgrades or major partnerships. Broader momentum in similar socialfi or decentralized social networking tokens could also provide a rising tide that lifts MARU's price. The market will finally resolve on March 31, 2026.
Markets for niche crypto assets like this are less reliable than for major events like elections. The low trading volume, about $54,000 spread across related questions, means the price can be swayed by a relatively small number of traders. However, these markets often efficiently aggregate available information from dedicated community followers. Their track record on similar "price pump" questions is mixed, as they can capture hype but struggle with unpredictable market manipulation or sudden news. View this less as a firm forecast and more as a snapshot of informed speculative sentiment.
Prediction markets currently assign a 52% probability that the MARU token will reach a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $800 million during Q1 2026. This price, implying a near-even split between "Yes" and "No," signals extreme uncertainty. With only $54,000 in total volume spread across three related markets, liquidity is thin. This low volume means the 52% price is highly sensitive to new information and may not reflect a deep consensus.
The primary factor is MARU's current valuation and recent price action. As of early March 2026, MARU's FDV is approximately $650 million. The market is effectively betting on whether the token can achieve a 23% increase from this level before the quarter ends. This target is ambitious but not implausible for a volatile crypto asset in a 31-day window. The specific reliance on EdgeX's MARU/USDC feed for a 1-minute candle high introduces an element of technical volatility. A single, brief price spike on that exchange could trigger resolution, making the event more likely than a metric based on sustained trading would suggest.
Any major announcement from the Maru project regarding partnerships, protocol upgrades, or significant exchange listings could rapidly shift sentiment and price, directly impacting the FDV calculation. Conversely, a broader downturn in cryptocurrency markets would likely pressure MARU's price downward, making the $800 million target more distant. The thin market liquidity itself is a risk. A relatively small capital inflow could manipulate the price on EdgeX, potentially triggering or suppressing the key 1-minute candle. Traders should monitor EdgeX order book depth closely in the final weeks of March.
MARU is the native token of the Maru Network, a layer-2 blockchain built with the OP Stack. It aims to provide a high-throughput environment for decentralized applications. The project completed a $5 million seed funding round in late 2024. Its current ~$650 million FDV is a critical reference point, indicating the market has already priced in significant future growth. The prediction market question tests whether investor enthusiasm can push it to the next milestone within a very short timeframe.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on whether the MARU token, a cryptocurrency, will achieve a specific Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) target during the first quarter of 2026. The FDV is a metric used to value a cryptocurrency project by multiplying the current price of a single token by the total number of tokens that will ever exist in its supply. The market resolves based on data from the EdgeX exchange's MARU/USDC trading pair. If any one-minute price candle on EdgeX during Q1 2026 shows a high price that implies an FDV equal to or greater than the specified target, the market resolves to 'Yes.' Otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' This type of market allows participants to speculate on the future valuation of a relatively new crypto asset based on its projected maximum supply and potential price appreciation. Interest in such markets stems from the volatile nature of cryptocurrency valuations and the significant financial gains possible if a low-market-cap token experiences rapid growth. The MARU token is associated with the Maru project, which is building infrastructure for decentralized artificial intelligence (AI) and compute resources. The project aims to create a decentralized network where users can contribute or access GPU computing power for AI model training and inference, a sector that has attracted substantial investment and developer attention in recent years. The outcome of this market hinges on the project's execution, broader crypto market conditions, and adoption of its decentralized compute platform.
The concept of valuing crypto assets by their fully diluted valuation gained prominence during the 2020-2021 bull market, particularly for new tokens launched through mechanisms like initial DEX offerings (IDOs). Many projects advertised low initial market caps but had massive total token supplies scheduled for release over years. This often led to situations where a token's FDV was orders of magnitude higher than its circulating market cap, creating significant sell pressure as tokens unlocked. The collapse of many high-FDV, low-circulation projects in 2022 made investors more wary of this metric. Prediction markets on platforms like Manifold and Polymarket have existed since at least 2020, allowing users to bet on real-world events. Their application to specific crypto price targets is a natural extension, providing a financial instrument for hedging or speculating on volatility. The Maru project itself emerged in a crowded field of decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), a sector that saw a resurgence in 2023-2024. This sector aims to tokenize real-world infrastructure, such as data storage, wireless networks, and computing power, with projects like Render, Akash, and Filecoin serving as earlier precedents. The specific focus on AI compute is a more recent trend, accelerated by the global shortage of GPUs and the explosive growth of generative AI models since 2022.
The outcome of this market is a proxy for measuring market sentiment on the viability of decentralized AI infrastructure. A 'Yes' resolution would signal that a critical mass of traders believes the Maru network can achieve significant adoption and value capture within a defined timeframe, validating a segment of the DePIN and AI narratives in crypto. Conversely, a 'No' might indicate skepticism about the project's execution, the sustainability of its tokenomics, or a broader downturn in the crypto market. For participants, the market offers a direct financial stake in this belief without needing to hold the underlying volatile asset. Beyond speculation, the market's liquidity and price can act as a crowdsourced forecast for the project's near-term success, potentially influencing developer morale, community engagement, and even the decisions of the Maru DAO itself. If the FDV target is met, it could unlock substantial value for early token holders and stakers, but it also raises questions about sustainability and whether the valuation is supported by actual network usage or mere speculation.
As of late 2024, the Maru project is in its early stages of development and community building. The mainnet has not yet launched, and the token is primarily traded on decentralized exchanges like EdgeX. The circulating supply is a fraction of the total 1 billion, with detailed vesting schedules for the team, investors, and community treasury typically governing the remainder. The broader crypto market condition in Q1 2026, which is unknown at the time of market creation, will be a major external factor. Recent developments would include technical progress updates from the development team, governance proposals from the Maru DAO, and fluctuations in the token's price and trading volume on secondary markets.
FDV is calculated by taking the current market price of a single token and multiplying it by the total maximum supply of tokens that will ever be created for that project. It represents a theoretical valuation of the entire network if all tokens were in circulation at the current price.
The market rules specify EdgeX as the resolution source. If that feed becomes permanently unavailable or is delisted, the market operator on Manifold would typically use their discretion to find a replacement price source or may resolve the market as 'N/A' or based on the last available data, depending on the platform's fallback policies.
No. The market only requires that a single one-minute candle's high price implies the target FDV. The price could spike to that level for less than a minute and then crash immediately afterward. The resolution condition is based on a momentary high, not a sustained price.
Market cap uses the circulating supply (tokens actively available for trading), while FDV uses the total supply. For projects with large amounts of locked or unvested tokens, the FDV can be much higher than the market cap, indicating potential future sell pressure.
In theory, a large, coordinated buy order could create a brief price spike on the low-liquidity EdgeX market to trigger the resolution. However, executing such manipulation profitably is risky and costly, as it requires moving the price significantly on the official resolution exchange.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 52% |
| Poly | 31% |
| Poly | 18% |
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