Name: Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner
End: 2026-04-12T00:00:00.000Z

PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.45M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.45M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

23 markets tracked

Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(23)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Carlos Espá finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Yonhy Lescano finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Roberto Chiabra finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will José Williams finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Fernando Olivera finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Mario Vizcarra finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will César Acuña finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will José Luna finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will George Forsyth finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Enrique Valderrama finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Mesías Guevara finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$2.45M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 12, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.45M
* **Total Liquidity:** $218.6K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 11.19)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $385.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Vladimir Cerrón finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $23.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Fiorella Molinelli finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $20.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Carlos Espá finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $39.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Yonhy Lescano finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $26.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $219.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $832.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Roberto Chiabra finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $19.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will José Williams finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $24.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Fernando Olivera finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $19.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $27.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $41.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Mario Vizcarra finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $17.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will César Acuña finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $23.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will José Luna finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $13.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Jorge Nieto finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $195.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $17.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $159.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $106.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will George Forsyth finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $10.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Enrique Valderrama finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $8.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $203.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Mesías Guevara finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 12, 2026): Vol $11.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics