Name: US/Israel strike Yemen by...?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

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US/Israel strike Yemen by...? | PredictPedia

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Polymarket

markets · $1.40K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.40K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?	Poly	73%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?	Poly	59%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?	Poly	53%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 4?	Poly	44%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 2?	Poly	39%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 3?	Poly	28%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 1?	Poly	16%

AI Analysis

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73%

Top Probability

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consu

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US/Israel strike Yemen by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consu

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.15)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US/Israel strike Yemen by March 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $896
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. US/Israel strike Yemen by March 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $272
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. US/Israel strike Yemen by March 3?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $199
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. US/Israel strike Yemen by March 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. US/Israel strike Yemen by March 7?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. US/Israel strike Yemen by March 14?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $31
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $7
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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