GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Sweden Parliamentary Elections: Social Democratic Party # of seats?

Name: Sweden Parliamentary Elections: Social Democratic Party # of seats?
End: 2026-09-13T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$11.15K

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Markets

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Sweden Parliamentary Elections: Social Democratic Party # of seats?

Vol

$11.15K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $11.15K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.15K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win fewer than 105 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win fewer than 105 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	41%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 105-109 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	41%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 110-114 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	17%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 115-119 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	3%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 130 or more seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	1%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 120-124 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	1%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 125-129 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

41%

Top Probability

$11.15K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) as a result of this election. Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, officially registered as Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna (S). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation w

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Sweden Parliamentary Elections: Social Democratic Party # of seats?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 13, 2026 (9 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) as a result of this election.

Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, officially registered as Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna (S). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation w

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) as a result of this election.

Seats will be counted only where the Swedish "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $74.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.15)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win fewer than 105 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 105-109 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $4.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 110-114 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $584
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 115-119 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $273
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 120-124 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $311
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 125-129 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $308
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 130 or more seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 13, 2026): Vol $822
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics