What countries will Pope Leo visit before 2027? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIWorld

What countries will Pope Leo visit before 2027?

Total Volume

$119.38K

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What countries will Pope Leo visit before 2027?

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $119.38K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $119.38K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

12 markets tracked

Will Pope Leo XIV visit Peru before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Peru before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	69%
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Argentina before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	51%
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Uruguay before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	39%
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Portugal before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	38%
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Mexico before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	28%
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Brazil before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	24%
Will Pope Leo XIV visit United States before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	19%
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Philippines before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	14%
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	13%
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	12%
Will Pope Leo XIV visit South Sudan before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	11%
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Jordan before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	10%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

69%

Top Probability

$119.38K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries X before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal bound

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What countries will Pope Leo visit before 2027?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries X before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal bound

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Pope Leo XIV has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of the United States of America before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport la"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $119.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Pope Leo XIV visit United States before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $45.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Pope Leo XIV visit Uruguay before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $13.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Pope Leo XIV visit Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $7.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Pope Leo XIV visit South Sudan before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Pope Leo XIV visit Portugal before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Pope Leo XIV visit Philippines before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $79
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Pope Leo XIV visit Peru before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $9.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 69.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Pope Leo XIV visit Mexico before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $22.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Pope Leo XIV visit Jordan before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $254
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Pope Leo XIV visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Pope Leo XIV visit Brazil before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $910
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Pope Leo XIV visit Argentina before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $11.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

27¢

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What countries will Pope Leo visit before 2027?

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Will Pope Leo XIV visit Peru before Jan 1, 2027?

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About This Event

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Pope Leo XIV visit Peru before Jan 1, 2027?

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