This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at Denver International Airport (KDEN) on March 26, 2026. The market resolves based on data from Wunderground's historical records for the station, specifically the highest temperature reading for that calendar day. This type of market falls under climate prediction, where participants use meteorological knowledge, historical weather patterns, and seasonal forecasts to speculate on a specific, measurable outcome. Interest stems from both meteorological enthusiasts tracking Denver's volatile spring weather and prediction market participants analyzing probabilistic outcomes. Denver's climate is semi-arid and highly variable in March, situated at the high elevation of 5,280 feet on the eastern edge of the Rocky Mountains. The city experiences significant temperature swings during this transitional month, with potential for late-season snowstorms or unseasonably warm, dry conditions influenced by Chinook winds. The specific date of March 26 falls during a period where average highs historically climb, but record extremes demonstrate considerable volatility. Participants must consider factors like the position of the jet stream, Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, and regional snowpack, which all influence Denver's late-March weather.

Historical Context

Denver's temperature records for late March show a wide range of possibilities. The all-time highest temperature ever recorded in Denver during the month of March is 84 degrees Fahrenheit, set on March 16, 2019. For the specific date of March 26, historical data reveals significant variability. In 2012, the high temperature reached 80 degrees, while in 2023, it was only 46 degrees. The 30-year average high for March 26 in Denver, based on the 1991-2020 climate normals published by NOAA, is approximately 58 degrees Fahrenheit. This average masks the extreme swings characteristic of the region's spring. Major snowstorms have occurred as late as mid-April, while periods of summer-like heat can arrive in March. The historical precedent is one of unpredictability, where the difference between a record warm day and a cold, snowy day can hinge on the precise track of a single storm system or the strength of downslope winds off the mountains. Long-term climate trends also provide context. According to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, Denver's average spring temperature has increased by about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit since 1970, which may slightly increase the probability of warmer outcomes over time.

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