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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Largest Company end of April?

Name: Largest Company end of April?
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$14.96M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Largest Company end of April?

Vol

$14.96M

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $14.96M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $14.96M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Poly	99%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Poly	1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Poly	0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Poly	0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Poly	0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Poly	0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$14.96M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, May 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Largest Company end of April?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30, 2026, as of market close.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $14.96M
* **Total Liquidity:** $1.41M
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 10.57)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.43M
  DATA: [Yes: 99.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.66M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $1.52M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $1.40M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.40M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.27M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 30, 2026): Vol $2.28M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

14¢

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