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In 2026 If X wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district House seat, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close after X wins the party's nomination. This market will close after X wins the party's nomination.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on the 2026 Democratic primary election for Washington D.C.'s non-voting delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives. The District of Columbia's at-large congressional district elects a single delegate to the House, a position currently held by a Democrat, reflecting the city's overwhelming Democratic voter registration. The market resolves to 'Yes' when a specific candidate, denoted as X, secures the Democratic Party's nomination for this seat. The primary is significant because it effectively determines who will represent D.C. in Congress, given the district's strong Democratic lean, with the general election serving as a formality in most cycles. Interest in this market stems from its function as an early indicator of political shifts within D.C.'s local Democratic establishment, potential policy directions for the district's federal advocacy, and the career trajectories of prominent local politicians. The outcome will shape who advocates for D.C. statehood, budget autonomy, and other key issues on the national stage for the 2027-2029 term.
The office of D.C. Delegate was established by the District of Columbia Delegate Act of 1970, with the first election held in 1971. Walter Fauntroy, a civil rights leader, won that election and served until 1991, establishing the role as a platform for advocating D.C. home rule and voting rights. Eleanor Holmes Norton succeeded Fauntroy, winning the 1990 Democratic primary and taking office in January 1991. She has been re-elected overwhelmingly ever since, with her smallest general election margin being 88% of the vote in 1994. The Democratic primary has been the only meaningful contest for this seat for over 30 years. The last competitive Democratic primary occurred in 1990 when Norton defeated several candidates, including former Mayor Marion Barry, by focusing on her experience as a former chair of the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. Since then, Norton has faced only token primary opposition, making a potential 2026 open seat a historic event in D.C. politics.
The selection of D.C.'s delegate has significant implications for the district's federal agenda. The delegate, while unable to vote on final passage of legislation on the House floor, can vote in committee, introduce bills, and advocate for D.C.'s priorities. The most prominent of these is the decades-long fight for D.C. statehood, which would grant the district full voting representation in Congress. The next delegate will also be a critical voice on federal appropriations for the district, as Congress maintains budgetary oversight. For District residents, this election determines their primary advocate on issues ranging from Metro funding to pandemic recovery aid. The outcome also signals the direction of the local Democratic Party, potentially elevating a new generation of leadership and influencing down-ballot races for the D.C. Council and shadow senator positions.
As of late 2024, the political landscape is in a holding pattern awaiting Delegate Norton's decision regarding the 2026 election. She has not publicly announced her intentions. Potential successors are engaged in low-key positioning, focusing on their current council duties and building political capital, but no one has declared candidacy. The Democratic primary is expected to be held in June 2026, following the typical D.C. election calendar. Local political observers are closely watching for any signs of Norton's plans, as an announcement of retirement would immediately trigger active campaigning and likely a crowded primary field.
The D.C. delegate can sponsor legislation, vote in House committees, and debate on the House floor, but cannot cast a decisive vote on the final passage of bills. The role is primarily one of advocacy, focusing on issues like D.C. statehood, budget autonomy, and federal legislation affecting the district.
Based on the District's election calendar, the Democratic primary will likely be held on June 2, 2026. The D.C. Board of Elections will formally set the date in 2025, but it traditionally coincides with the primary election for other local offices.
It is highly improbable in a general election due to the district's overwhelming Democratic voter registration. No Republican has come close to winning the seat since its creation. The last Republican candidate received only 17.5% of the vote in the 2022 general election.
If the incumbent seeks another term, she would be the overwhelming favorite to win the Democratic primary, as she has for decades. This would likely deter major challengers and result in a prediction market resolving to 'Yes' for her as candidate X.
The delegate is a non-voting member of the House of Representatives. D.C. has no voting representation in the Senate. The delegate's powers are less than those of a full voting representative, particularly the inability to affect final passage of legislation on the House floor.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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10 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Brooke Pinto be the Democratic nominee for Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district? | Kalshi | 38% |
Wil Robert White be the Democratic nominee for Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district? | Kalshi | 38% |
Wil Eleanor Holmes Norton be the Democratic nominee for Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district? | Kalshi | 6% |
Wil Kinney Zalesne be the Democratic nominee for Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district? | Kalshi | 3% |
Wil Kelly Mikel Williams be the Democratic nominee for Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district? | Kalshi | 3% |
Wil Jacque Patterson be the Democratic nominee for Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district? | Kalshi | 3% |
Wil Janeese Lewis George be the Democratic nominee for Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district? | Kalshi | 3% |
Wil Greg Maye be the Democratic nominee for Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district? | Kalshi | 3% |
Wil Gordon Chaffin be the Democratic nominee for Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district? | Kalshi | 3% |
Wil Deirdre Brown be the Democratic nominee for Delegate to the U.S. House of Representatives from the District of Columbia's at-large district? | Kalshi | 3% |
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