Will Cambria launch a token by ___?
PM $160.9K
1
3
Will Cambria launch a token by ___?
PM $160.9K
1
3
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is June 30, 2027 at 99.6%.
Polymarket
- June 30, 202799.6%
- December 31, 202798.9%
- December 31, 202697%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $160.9K
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The three markets in this snapshot ask whether Cambria will launch a token by a stated date. Each resolves "Yes" if Cambria "officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title" [1]. Only an official Cambria token qualifies. The rules state that "Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count" [1].
The token must also be "actively and publicly tradable," and "Announcements alone do not qualify" [1]. The primary resolution source is information from Cambria's official account, though "a consensus of credible reporting will also be used" [1]. Because the title wording is the same across all three markets, the only difference between them is the deadline.
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-23T00:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-23T01:49:41Z [1]. These are the times of the stored snapshot, not live prices. The provider's listed end time for the event is 2028-01-01T05:00:00Z [1].
The three markets show these Yes and No prices:
- Token launch by December 31, 2026: Yes 0.8435, No 0.1565 [1]. The listed end date is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z.
- Token launch by June 30, 2027: Yes 0.9865, No 0.0135 [1]. The listed end date is 2027-07-01T03:59:00Z.
- Token launch by December 31, 2027: Yes 0.9785, No 0.0215 [1]. The listed end date is 2028-01-01T04:59:00Z.
Each Yes and No pair sums to about 1. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved volume figures are not included here, and volume alone does not indicate liquidity or how many traders hold a position.
The later deadlines carry higher Yes prices, which is consistent with the rule that a later deadline gives more time for a launch to occur. The data does not explain why any price is where it is.
What remains uncertain
This sample covers all three saved markets for one provider event, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. The sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Prices from other events or platforms are not comparable here, and the differing deadlines should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity.
The snapshot does not show any announced launch plans, Cambria's current status, or whether a token has been launched since the observation time. Readers should check the official source and the listed end times before relying on these figures.
References
- Polymarket: Will Cambria launch a token by ___?. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This is a Polymarket contract on whether Cambria will officially launch a token by a deadline stated in the contract title. The rules say the market resolves "Yes" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title, and "No" otherwise [1]. The deadline in the title is the contract's resolution cutoff, not an announced launch date. The rules say the market can only be resolved by an official token launched by Cambria. Stablecoins, memecoins, liquid staking tokens and synthetic tokens do not count [1]. The token also has to be actively and publicly tradable, so announcements alone do not qualify [1]. The primary resolution source is information from Cambria itself, which the rules link to Cambria's official X account [1]. The rules add that a consensus of credible reporting will also be used [1]. Because the contract relies on this combination, a launch would need to be confirmed through Cambria's own channels or credible reporting, not simply described as planned. The event contains three markets with different deadlines: June 30, 2027, December 31, 2026 and December 31, 2027. Each uses the same underlying question with a different cutoff date [1]. The saved snapshot shows the Yes and No prices for each, with the Yes price for the December 31, 2026 deadline lower than the other two at the observation time. These prices are snapshots taken at a specific moment. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of a launch.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Cambria officially launches a token that meets the stated criteria by a given cutoff. It is narrower than a general question about crypto activity. The exclusions for stablecoins, memecoins, liquid staking tokens and synthetic tokens mean that many kinds of crypto assets would not resolve the market [1]. The requirement that the token be actively and publicly tradable means that a formal announcement without a live market would not be enough [1]. Readers comparing the three deadlines should note that each market resolves on its own cutoff, so a launch before the earliest deadline would also satisfy the later ones under the same wording, while a launch after the earliest deadline would not affect that market [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does an announcement that Cambria plans a token count as a launch?
No. The rules state that announcements alone do not qualify, and the token must be actively and publicly tradable [1].
Which kinds of tokens would not resolve this contract?
The rules exclude stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens [1].
What is the time cutoff for each deadline?
The rules say the market resolves to Yes if a launch occurs by 11:59 PM ET on the date in the title, and to No otherwise [1].
What sources will be used to resolve the market?
The primary source is information from Cambria, linked to its official X account, and a consensus of credible reporting will also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Who will launch a token this year?
PM $21.00M · K 92.4K contractsWill Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Exponent launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
Needs review
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
Kalshi: Will Arc launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
Needs review
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Ostium launch a token before Jan 1, 2027?
Same question, fine print differs
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Will Predict.fun launch a token by ___?
PM $868.3K
Cambria FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PM $165.4K
Will LI.FI launch a token by ___?
PM $82.1K
Will QFEX launch a token by ___?
PM $70.8K
Will Betmoar launch a token by ___?
PM $59.7KMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
