Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

Name: GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$226.59K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?

Vol

$226.59K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $226.59K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $226.59K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	Poly	90%
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Poly	24%
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?	Poly	12%
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

90%

Top Probability

$226.59K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 w

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (81 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 w

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or high"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $199.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $47.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.23)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $56.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $56.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 23, 2026): Vol $32.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $53.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech