GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?

Name: What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?
End: 2026-09-30T04:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$46.17K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?

Vol

$46.17K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $46.17K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $46.17K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?	Poly	75%
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30?	Poly	13%
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,220,000 and $1,242,000 on September 30?	Poly	5%
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30?	Poly	5%
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,242,000 and $1,264,000 on September 30?	Poly	4%
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,264,000 and $1,284,000 on September 30?	Poly	1%
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,284,000 on September 30?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

75%

Top Probability

$46.17K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square fo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 30, 2026 (25 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square fo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $46.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.9K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.76)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $22.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $14.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.6% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,220,000 and $1,242,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $2.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,242,000 and $1,264,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,264,000 and $1,284,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,284,000 on September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy