$362.93K
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$362.93K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest domestic gross between opening and March 15, 2026 according to "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Scream 7 will be the highest-grossing film released in February 2026 by the end of March. In simple terms, traders see this as an almost certain outcome, with roughly a 19 in 20 chance. This means they expect no other movie coming out that February to earn more money at the U.S. box office in that roughly two-month window.
Two main factors explain this high confidence. First, the Scream franchise has a very reliable track record. The last three films each opened to over $30 million domestically and performed consistently, showing a durable audience. In a month like February, which is not known for blockbuster releases, a known franchise has a major advantage.
Second, the specific release calendar matters. Major studios typically avoid February for their biggest films, often using it for smaller genre movies or films they are less confident about. Scream 7 is likely to be the only established, wide-release franchise film scheduled for that month. Without a surprise hit from a competitor like Marvel or a major animated film, the path for Scream 7 to top the monthly chart is clear.
The main event is the official confirmation of the February 2026 release schedule, which studios will announce over the next year. If a competing film with major box office potential—like an unexpected franchise entry or a buzzy project from a top director—gets scheduled for February 13 or 20, 2026, these odds could shift. Otherwise, the next significant data point will be Scream 7's opening weekend performance in February 2026, which will confirm or challenge the market's expectations.
For questions about film franchise performance in a known release window, prediction markets have a decent record. They effectively aggregate expectations about brand strength and competitive positioning. However, this is a long-term forecast about an event two years away. The biggest limitation is that the entire film landscape could change. A trailer could be poorly received, or a key cast member could leave the project, hurting its prospects. Markets are good at weighing current information, but they cannot predict unforeseen shocks that far in advance.
Prediction markets on Polymarket assign a 96% probability that Scream 7 will be the highest-grossing February 2026 film by March 31. This price indicates near-certainty among traders. The market is thin, with only $6,000 in volume spread across four contracts, meaning this consensus is based on limited capital but strong directional conviction. The other three films in the market, including The Rosie Project and The Black Phone 2, are trading at single-digit probabilities.
The pricing reflects the established commercial power of the Scream franchise and a weak competitive slate. The sixth film earned over $168 million globally in 2022, demonstrating the series' consistent appeal. For February 2026, no other scheduled release has a comparable track record or built-in audience. The Black Phone 2 is a horror sequel but its first film grossed a solid but lower $161 million globally. The Rosie Project is an untested romantic comedy adaptation. Historical box office patterns show February is often a soft month where one major franchise release can dominate. With Scream 7 positioned as that sole major release, its high probability is logical.
The primary risk is an unexpected shift in the release calendar. A major studio could move a stronger film into February 2026, though this is unlikely with only 29 days until resolution. More plausible is underperformance by Scream 7 itself, potentially from poor critical reception or audience fatigue, though the franchise has been resilient. The market will react to opening weekend data in late February. If Scream 7 opens below projections, perhaps under $40 million domestically, the 96% probability could drop sharply. Conversely, if a competitor like The Black Phone 2 overperforms its predecessor, it could gain ground, but the current gap is very wide.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market asks participants to forecast which film released in 2025 will earn the most money at the domestic box office by March 15, 2026. The domestic gross refers to ticket sales in the United States and Canada. The market resolves using final data from The Numbers, a widely cited industry database, specifically the cumulative total found on a film's 'Box Office' tab under 'Daily Box Office Performance.' In case of a tie, the film whose title comes first alphabetically wins. If The Numbers lacks final data by March 31, 2026, an alternative credible source will be selected. This topic generates interest because it combines analysis of film industry trends, studio release strategies, and audience preferences into a single, measurable outcome. The early March cutoff date is significant as it follows the traditional awards season and precedes the summer blockbuster period, capturing the full performance of late-year prestige films and holiday releases while excluding most of the following year's major titles. Market participants must evaluate factors like franchise strength, director and star power, release timing, critical reception, and competition from streaming platforms.
The concept of tracking a year's top-grossing film has been a staple of industry reporting since the rise of wide-release blockbusters in the 1970s. The modern domestic box office record was set in 2015 by 'Star Wars: The Force Awakens' with $936.7 million, a figure that remained unchallenged until 2019 when 'Avengers: Endgame' earned $858.4 million. The annual domestic champion has typically been a franchise film from Disney, Universal, or Warner Bros. In 2023, the top film was 'Barbie' with $636.2 million, demonstrating that non-franchise, original IP can still achieve dominance. The March 15 resolution date is a recent construct for prediction markets, designed to allow final tallies for films released in late December, which often have long theatrical runs through awards season. Historically, the period between a film's release and the following March captures the entirety of its primary theatrical revenue, as most films earn the bulk of their box office within the first 10-12 weeks.
The performance of the annual box office champion has substantial economic implications. A film earning several hundred million dollars domestically generates revenue for theater chains, studios, and thousands of workers across production and distribution. It also influences studio greenlight decisions, shaping what types of movies get made for years to come. The identity of the top film signals broader cultural trends, indicating whether audiences favor established franchises, original stories, or specific genres. For prediction markets, this topic serves as a measurable test of collective forecasting ability regarding popular culture and consumer spending. Accurate predictions require synthesizing data on marketing campaigns, release schedules, critical buzz, and competitive landscape.
As of late 2024, major studios have announced portions of their 2025 release slates. Scheduled tentpole releases include Marvel's 'Captain America: Brave New World' (July 2025), Universal's 'How to Train Your Dragon' (June 2025), and Warner Bros.' 'The Batman Part II' (October 2025). However, the full calendar remains fluid, with dates subject to change and additional major titles likely to be announced. Industry analysts are beginning to formulate early predictions based on franchise history, director involvement, and release date positioning.
Domestic box office gross refers to total ticket sales revenue from theaters in the United States and Canada. It does not include international markets or revenue from streaming, DVD sales, or merchandise.
The March 15 date allows sufficient time for films released in late December, during the holiday season and awards push, to complete their primary theatrical runs. Most films earn the majority of their box office within 10-12 weeks of release.
The Numbers aggregates data from theater chains and distributors, making it a highly reliable and industry-standard source. Major trade publications like Variety and The Hollywood Reporter use and cite its data for official weekend box office reports.
Yes. In 2023, 'Barbie,' an original film based on a toy brand but not part of an existing movie series, was the domestic champion. In 2009, James Cameron's original sci-fi film 'Avatar' was the top film.
The gross from any theatrical re-release before the resolution date would be included in the cumulative total on The Numbers, as it tracks all domestic box office revenue for a film's title.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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